META Earnings
2026-04-29
EPS Estimate
$6.73
$6.16 – $7.81
Revenue Estimate
$55.5B
Earnings Trend
beating
Current Price
$572.13
Our Position
bearish · highMeta's AI bet falters as capex surges and courts close in
est. revisions stable
Meta is a capex momentum story, not a fundamentals turnaround. The $120 million insider exodus—especially CFO stock option vesting tied to $1,116–$3,727 targets implying 100%+ upside—signals insiders hedge their own conviction. Until Q2 earnings prove Nebius revenue locks in, the court verdict risk, macro rate headwinds, and cash burn make the $775 consensus target a leap of faith, not a floor.
Watch: April 23 Q2 earnings for capex guidance defense and Nebius contract revenue recognition; verdict settlement cost and regulatory spillover damage. Cashflow guidance below $10 billion signals capex discipline failure.
Data Signal Summary
0 bullish
2 bearish
Insider selling cluster
Price downtrend
Key Context
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
1-Month Return
-17.2%
From 52w High
-31.9%
P/E Ratio
22.4
Est. Revisions (30d)
+0.1% 0up/2dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$862 $614–$1144
Options P/C Ratio
0.83 20C/23P unusual
Est. Dispersion
22% 39 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Coatue, Tiger Global, Pershing Square
Recent Activity
filing change
META 10-K change (MEDIUM): Changes to discussion of advertising revenue seasonality.
insider trade
Sale at price 643.00 per share.
filing change
META 10-K change (MEDIUM): Changes in description of investment focuses and segment operating losses.
filing change
META 10-K change (MEDIUM): Tax-related disclosures enhanced to reflect impact of new tax law and CAMT.
insider trade
Sale at price 634.94 per share.
insider trade
Sale at price 637.21 per share.
insider trade
Sale at price 640.11 - 648.83 per share.
insider trade
Sale at price 632.02 per share.
insider trade
Sale at price 632.02 per share.
insider trade
Sale at price 605.38 per share.
Get alerted when this prediction scores after earnings.