TSLA
bullish · high conviction REVERSAL $396.73 -3.5% (20d)BofA Buy restarts coverage; autonomy thesis gains traction
Bank of America upgraded Tesla to Buy on March 4 with a $460 price target, 16% upside, breaking months of analyst caution on the robotaxi and Optimus pivot. Q4 2025 shows margin healing—gross margin jumped 386 bps to 20.1%, cash surged 173% to $44.1B, and energy revenue grew 25% YoY—offsetting an 16% YoY deliveries decline. Tesla plans to launch Robotaxi in seven new markets in H1 2026, and Musk projects a $250 trillion humanoid robot market by 2040. But insider selling persists: board member Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold $10.7M in stock at $412–$419, a fresh sign of internal skepticism on execution timelines.
BofA's reinstatement represents the first major institutional pivot toward the autonomy thesis since regulatory headwinds emerged; the March 9 NHTSA Full Self-Driving submission remains a binary gate that will determine whether scaled robotaxi is even permissible, not just profitable.
Watch: March 9 NHTSA FSD data submission will either validate regulatory approval for scaled robotaxi operations or force a re-rating toward traditional auto multiples (12–15x earnings). Q1 earnings (late April) will reveal whether robotaxi rides are generating volume or remain pre-revenue theater.
Active Predictions
Tesla Robotaxi Expansion and Margin Recovery Validated by BofA Upgrade; Autonomous Growth Thesis Crystallizing
Tesla Robotaxi Expansion and Margin Recovery Validated by BofA Upgrade; Autonomous Growth Thesis Crystallizing
Tesla Robotaxi Expansion and Margin Recovery Validated by BofA Upgrade; Autonomous Growth Thesis Crystallizing
Track Record
| Date | Call | Headline | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | 1q bear | Tesla Faces Critical Regulatory Test and Execution Risk as Robotaxi Valuation Thesis Unravels | -2.2% | invalidated |
| 2026-03-05 | 1m bear | Tesla Faces Critical Regulatory Test and Execution Risk as Robotaxi Valuation Thesis Unravels | -2.2% | invalidated |
| 2026-03-05 | 1w bear | Tesla Faces Critical Regulatory Test and Execution Risk as Robotaxi Valuation Thesis Unravels | -2.2% | invalidated |
Evidence
Recent signals
Alphabet Inc.-backed Waymo expanded its autonomous ride-hailing service to operate in 10 cities by adding Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and Orlando, and plans to serve over one million rides per week by the end of 2026, up from 450,000 rides reported previously. The company has logged over 200 million autonomous miles driven but is under investigation by NHTSA due to recent accidents involving its vehicles in California. Tesla Inc. is also advancing its robotaxi efforts with the forthcoming $30,000 Cybercab and ramped-up production expected in April 2026, despite reporting multiple crashes in its service in Austin, signaling robust competition in the autonomous vehicle sector.
- Waymo expanded autonomous ride-hailing service to 10 cities including Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and Orlando as of February 25, 2026.
- Waymo aims to serve over 1 million rides per week by end of 2026, up from 450,000 rides per week previously.
- Waymo logged over 200 million autonomous miles driven with its self-driving system.
- NHTSA is investigating over 3,000 Waymo autonomous vehicles following multiple incidents including crashes in California school zones.
Bank of America resumed coverage on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on March 4, 2026, upgrading its rating from Hold to Buy and setting a price target of $460, indicating a 16% upside from the prior close. Analyst Alexander Perry highlighted Tesla's leadership in the autonomous driving space, driven by its cost-effective camera-only technology and its plans to launch Robotaxi services in seven new markets in the first half of 2026. Despite this bullish outlook, Wall Street consensus remains cautious with an overall Hold rating and a slight expected downside of 1.5%, with Barclays maintaining an Equal-Weight rating and a $360 price target as of March 5.
- Bank of America upgraded TSLA to Buy from Hold on March 4, 2026.
- Price target set at $460, nearly 16% upside from prior close.
- Tesla plans to launch Robotaxi in seven new markets in H1 2026.
- Wall Street consensus Hold rating with 1.5% downside expected as of March 5, 2026.
Tesla (TSLA) closed 2.17% lower on March 6, 2026, with $25.329 billion turnover. CEO Elon Musk testified regarding underestimated fake account data and faced accusations of depressing Twitter’s stock price before acquisition due to past tweets.
- Tesla closed 2.17% lower on March 6, 2026.
- Tesla had a turnover of $25.329 billion on March 6, 2026.
- Elon Musk testified about underestimated fake account data and Twitter stock price accusations.
Bank of America reinstated Tesla with a Buy rating and a $460 price target, higher than the current price of $399.95 and the Street consensus of $420.90, based on Tesla's transition to an autonomous mobility platform with expansion of its robotaxi service to multiple cities in early 2026. Despite a 16% year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries in Q4 2025, Tesla's gross margin expanded 386 basis points to 20.1%, energy segment revenue grew 25% annually, and cash reserves increased 173% year-over-year to $44.059 billion. Tesla trades at a high valuation with a forward P/E of 196.08, reflecting a bet on significant future autonomous ride-hailing growth.
- Tesla price target raised to $460 by Bank of America, current price $399.95
- Tesla Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries fell 16% year-over-year
- Tesla Q4 2025 gross margin expanded 386 basis points to 20.1%
- Tesla energy segment revenue up 25% year-over-year in Q4 2025
BYD has applied for a permit to import vehicles into Canada following a reduced tariff agreement between Ottawa and Beijing, with BYD vehicles subject to a 6.1% tariff. The company registered its Shenzhen and Xi'an factories as potential exporters to Canada via Transport Canada filings. This development signals BYD's expanding North American footprint and potential competitive threat to Tesla in the Canadian market.
- BYD applied for permit to import vehicles into Canada following reduced tariff agreement
- BYD vehicles subject to 6.1% tariff under new Canada-Beijing agreement
- BYD registered Shenzhen and Xi'an factories as potential exporters to Canada
- BYD overseas sales surged 165% in European market compared to prior period
Direction changes (30d)
No direction changes — steady bullish for 30 days.