Track Record

Every prediction timestamped, scored, and published. Misses included.

88%

Bearish Accuracy (5d)

23/26 direction changes scored

Entity State Shifts — Do They Predict Price Moves?

Key finding: Our bearish calls hit 88% but bullish calls only 31%. We're a much better bear detector than bull detector. We've adjusted our system to require more evidence before calling bullish, and we suppress low-confidence bullish predictions publicly. (26 bearish + 29 bullish transitions scored)

58% correct at 5 days (55 scored)

Bearish shifts

88% 23/26

Bullish shifts

31% 9/29

Reversals

62% 16/26

Shifts

55% 16/29

Signal Quality Scoring — Does Confidence Predict Accuracy?

88%

High confidence calls

n=17

29%

Low confidence calls

n=17

Our quality scoring separates signal from noise: a 59 percentage point spread between our highest and lowest confidence calls. Based on 53 scored transitions.

Bearish Call Accuracy by Stock

NVDA

4/4 100%

How We Predict and Score

Predictions

An agent with 7 research tools analyzes price momentum, insider activity, analyst revisions, estimate revisions, options flow, earnings history, and a quantitative factor model. Each factor is scored −2 to +2 with cited evidence. The bear case is built first.

Scoring: Two Dimensions

Every prediction is scored on two independent dimensions:

First Call: Was the chain's first prediction directionally correct? Measured from first baseline price to event-day close.
Event Reaction: Was the final prediction correct about the post-event move? Measured from event-day close to day 1 close.

Both scores are binary (correct/incorrect). We report both rates separately and show every prediction and every outcome.

Entity State Transitions

When our system detects a direction shift (e.g., bullish to bearish), we track what happens to the stock price over the following 5, 10, and 20 trading days. This measures whether our entity analysis predicts real price movement.

Get alerted when stocks change direction

Direction reversals, significant shifts, prediction outcomes — emailed when they happen.

View active predictions →