F Earnings Preview

Broad market correction deepens Ford's sales collapse

Ford's valuation—6.2x forward PE and 0.24x price-to-sales—looked cheap only if you believed management's $1.47 full-year EPS guidance. That guidance is now mathematically indefensible. A broad market correction kills Ford's cyclical multiple before the company can raise warranty reserves or cut guidance; the result is downside to $11–$12 before any catalyst stabilizes the stock.

Watch: Q1 earnings late April will force a guidance cut. Ford cannot defend $1.47 EPS with recall burn and shrinking volumes; every $100M in warranty charges is $0.08–$0.10 lost per share.