F Ford Motor Company

bearish · high conviction track record → $11.21 -0.16 (-1.4%)
Mkt Cap $46B 52wk $8.44 - $14.80 Earnings beating
bearish for 1d | 15 signals · latest 7d ago | updated 19h ago
Bearish 89% historical accuracy high conviction n=59
Insider buying: $2,333,102 bought by 22 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: +1.5% (2 up, 0 down in 30d)

Broad market correction deepens Ford's sales collapse

89% historical accuracy thin signal density n=59
Factors: +0.10 est. revisions +0.07 momentum +0.96 analyst

Watch: Q1 earnings late April will force a guidance cut. Ford cannot defend $1.47 EPS with recall burn and shrinking volumes; every $100M in warranty charges is $0.08–$0.10 lost per share.

Full analysis

Macro headwinds are crushing what was already a broken operational story. The S&P 500 logged its longest losing streak since 2022—five weeks of declines—with the Dow off 1.7% and Nasdaq down 2.1% on March 27, 2026. Oil surged above $106 Brent and $100 WTI on suspected insider trading ahead of Trump's Iran strike delay. Ford trades down 20% from its 52-week high and sits 8.9% below its 20-day moving average in a downtrend. The company's Q4 negative 4.37% net margin and 5.5% U.S. sales decline already signaled deep trouble; this correction now threatens credit conditions and consumer demand precisely when Ford faces 2.4+ million vehicle recalls and a deteriorating warranty reserve picture.

Ford's valuation—6.2x forward PE and 0.24x price-to-sales—looked cheap only if you believed management's $1.47 full-year EPS guidance. That guidance is now mathematically indefensible. A broad market correction kills Ford's cyclical multiple before the company can raise warranty reserves or cut guidance; the result is downside to $11–$12 before any catalyst stabilizes the stock.

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Why We're Bearish

net 1.6
Estimate Revisions
+0.1
estimates +1.5% in 30d
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
+0.1
-21.1% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
+1.0
upgrades > downgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

Compare

Ford Motor Company Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Mkt Cap
$46B
Beta
1.67
Div Yield
528.00%
52w Range
$8.44 - $14.80
Short Interest
21,386 0.0%
Days to Cover
0.0 -100%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-5.4%
vs 50d MA
-12.9%
from 52w Hi
-21.2%
Vol (20d)
31%
1w return
-1.3%
1m return
-21.1%
3m return
-14.0%
Vol ratio
0.6x
Insiders
mixed 0B / 0S
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.18 +1.5% 30d 2up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
175% 14 analysts
Analyst Target
$14 $11 - $18
Options P/C
0.60
Insider Cluster
buy cluster 2B / 2S
Fund Convergence
strong Renaissance, Two Sigma, Citadel, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$45.9B -5% YoY
FCF
$1.1B
Gross Margin
-19%
Op Margin
-25%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Renaissance $324M
Two Sigma $287M
Citadel $177M
Bridgewater $23M
D.E. Shaw $11M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 72
net buying · $1,657,200 sold · $2,333,102 bought
22 insiders · 72 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · other
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
HOUSE SHERRY ANN · other
WALDO JENNIFER · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
AMEND MICHAEL R · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
FARLEY JAMES D JR · other
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · buy · $1,934,450
AMEND MICHAEL R · other
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · other
FORD HENRY III · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
THORNTON JOHN L · buy · $99,189
WEINBERG JOHN S. · other
VEIHMEYER JOHN B. · other
FRICK ANDREW · sell · $675,000
HOUSE SHERRY ANN · other
WEINBERG JOHN S. · other
VEIHMEYER JOHN B. · other
WALDO JENNIFER · other
HUNTSMAN JON M JR · other
HELMAN WILLIAM W IV · award · $215,000
THORNTON JOHN L · award · $215,000
FORD HENRY III · award · $215,000
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · award · $314,996
MAY JOHN C. II · award · $314,996
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · other
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
HOUSE SHERRY ANN · other
WALDO JENNIFER · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
KOSMAN MARK E · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
AMEND MICHAEL R · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
FARLEY JAMES D JR · other
FORD HENRY III · other
GJAJA MARIN · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
STERN PETER CRAIG · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · award
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
STERN PETER CRAIG · other
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · other
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · other
THORNTON JOHN L · buy · $299,463
HUNTSMAN JON M JR · sell · $982,200
WEINBERG JOHN S. · other
VEIHMEYER JOHN B. · other
HELMAN WILLIAM W IV · award
THORNTON JOHN L · award
FORD HENRY III · award
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · award
MAY JOHN C. II · award
WALDO JENNIFER · other
HUNTSMAN JON M JR · other
earnings 4
EPS 0.14 (est 0.02131) · +5.6%
EPS 0.37 (est 0.33299) · +0.1%
EPS 0.45 (est 0.35883) · +0.3%
EPS 0.13 (est 0.19364) · -0.3%

Evidence

15d ago Is Ford Stock a Buy Now? yahoo-finance
16d ago Insider other by HUNTSMAN JON M JR (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider other by WALDO JENNIFER (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider award by MAY JOHN C. II (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider award by ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider award by FORD HENRY III (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider award by THORNTON JOHN L (F): undisclosed value
7 older signals
16d ago Insider award by HELMAN WILLIAM W IV (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider other by VEIHMEYER JOHN B. (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider other by WEINBERG JOHN S. (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider buy by THORNTON JOHN L (F): $299,463
16d ago Insider other by FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider other by ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD (F): undisclosed value
16d ago Insider other by STERN PETER CRAIG (F): undisclosed value

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