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WMT Walmart Inc.

bearish · high conviction track record → $123.50 +0.61 (+0.5%)
Mkt Cap $981B P/E 45.1 fwd 37.5 52wk $79.81 - $134.69 Earnings beating
15 signals · latest 16h ago | updated 19h ago
Bearish 89% historical accuracy high conviction n=59
Insider selling: $4,480,621,219 sold by 28 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: options_sentiment bullish vs price_momentum, analyst_revisions bearish
Est. revisions: -0.1%
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Walmart's 27% e-commerce surge masks 45x valuation wall

89% historical accuracy structured data adequate signal density n=59
Factors: -0.01 est. revisions -0.27 momentum -0.96 analyst divergence

Watch: Q1 earnings in ~60 days will reveal whether Spark restructuring improved fulfillment unit economics or if labor constraints continue to suppress margins despite the FTC settlement.

Full analysis

Walmart is executing operationally—U.S. e-commerce sales jumped 27% last quarter, digital advertising climbed 41%, and global e-commerce expanded 24%—while narrowing Amazon's infrastructure lead through Jet.com integration and NextDay delivery. But valuation has become the speed bump: the stock trades at 43x earnings and 40x forward earnings, a 53% premium to Amazon's 28x, prompting Erste Group's March 5 downgrade to Hold. Insider selling remains heavy (6 distinct sellers, $1.2B in sell volume) and analyst estimates have contracted 18 downgrades in 30 days with zero upgrades.

Strong operational momentum does not justify a 45x multiple in a consumer defensive sector. The FTC settlement and Spark driver constraints already factored into prior analysis; the real question is whether margin expansion from advertising can offset the valuation compression ahead of Q1 earnings, but 34 analysts have already begun repricing downward—insiders know what's coming.

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Why We're Bearish

net -1.2
Estimate Revisions
-0.0
estimates -0.1% in 30d
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
-0.3
-3.3% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
-1.0
downgrades > upgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

⚠ DIVERGENCE: options_sentiment bullish vs price_momentum, analyst_revisions bearish

Compare

vs NVDA vs AMD vs AAPL vs TSLA vs MSFT vs META vs GOOGL vs AMZN vs TSM vs ASML
Walmart Inc. Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Mkt Cap
$981B
P/E
45.1 fwd 37.5
Beta
0.66
Div Yield
80.00%
52w Range
$79.81 - $134.69
Short Interest
75.6M 0.95%
Days to Cover
3.2 -27%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-0.1%
vs 50d MA
-0.3%
from 52w Hi
-7.6%
Vol (20d)
20%
1w return
+2.3%
1m return
-3.3%
3m return
+10.8%
Vol ratio
0.8x
Insiders
selling 0B / 12S
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.66 -0.1% 30d 0up / 18dn
Est. Dispersion
15% 34 analysts
Analyst Target
$136 $62 - $150
Options P/C
2.40 1C / 3P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 8S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Renaissance, Bridgewater, Two Sigma
Financials
Revenue
$190.7B +6% YoY
FCF
$6.1B
Gross Margin
25%
Op Margin
5%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $2.0B
D.E. Shaw $1.1B
Renaissance $34M
Bridgewater $30M
Two Sigma $26M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 156
net selling · $4,480,621,219 sold
28 insiders · 156 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $403,009,014
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · award
FURNER JOHN R · award
MORRIS DONNA · award
BARTLETT DANIEL J · award
RAINEY JOHN D · award
KUMAR SURESH · award
DALLAIRE SETH · award
DANKER DANIEL · award
GUGGINA DAVID W. · award
MILUM DWAYNE · award
WATKINS LATRIECE · award
NICHOLAS CHRISTOPHER JAMES · award
WALTON STEUART L. · other
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $136,452,844
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $2,555,714
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $220,133,909
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,460,118
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $159,835,161
NICHOLAS CHRISTOPHER JAMES · sell · $4,158,004
WATKINS LATRIECE · sell · $1,214,630
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,694,479
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $167,179
MORRIS DONNA · sell · $9,430,446
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $2,445,353
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,313,875
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,574,866
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,560
DANKER DANIEL · sell · $524,629
MORRIS DONNA · sell · $1,127,863
FURNER JOHN R · award
MORRIS DONNA · award
BARTLETT DANIEL J · award
RAINEY JOHN D · award
KUMAR SURESH · award
DANKER DANIEL · award
NICHOLAS CHRISTOPHER JAMES · award
MEHROTRA SHISHIR · award · $93,283
STEPHENSON RANDALL L · award · $47,461
MAYER MARISSA A · award · $28,744
WALTON STEUART L. · award · $34,983
PENNER GREGORY BOYD · award · $56,931
HARRIS CARLA A · award · $17,491
NICCOL BRIAN R · award · $28,744
CONDE CESAR · award · $28,744
FRIAR SARAH J · award · $34,983
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK · award · $37,545
MORITZ ROBERT EDWARD JR. · award · $28,744
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,171,217
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $460,840
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $99,638,227
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,508,202
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $30,095,086
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,725
WALTON STEUART L. · other
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $244,706
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,127,330
CHOJNOWSKI DAVID · sell · $746,550
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $439,271,765
FURNER JOHN R · other
MCLAY KATHRYN J · other
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,374,908
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $406,520
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $167,205
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $222,602
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,080,951
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $431,000
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,414,592
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,563
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $222,933
STEPHENSON RANDALL L · award · $47,511
MAYER MARISSA A · award · $28,754
WALTON STEUART L. · award · $35,040
PENNER GREGORY BOYD · award · $56,889
HARRIS CARLA A · award · $17,520
NICCOL BRIAN R · award · $28,754
CONDE CESAR · award · $28,754
FRIAR SARAH J · award · $35,040
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK · award · $37,514
MORITZ ROBERT EDWARD JR. · award · $28,754
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,003,987
MORRIS DONNA · other
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $415,320
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,361,624
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $247,148,739
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,973
KUMAR SURESH · sell · $3,103,968
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $214,221
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $244,667,140
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $1,863,447
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $151,913,306
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,293,508
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $403,840
DANKER DANIEL · award
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,124
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $216,258
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $1,855,840
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $380,560
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,248,655
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,726
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $216,565
STEPHENSON RANDALL L · award
MAYER MARISSA A · award
WALTON STEUART L. · award
PENNER GREGORY BOYD · award
HARRIS CARLA A · award
NICCOL BRIAN R · award
FRIAR SARAH J · award
CONDE CESAR · award
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK · award
MORITZ ROBERT EDWARD JR. · award
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $36,923,285
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $1,887,012
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $329,638,636
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,257,980
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $380,960
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,795
STEPHENSON RANDALL L · award
MAYER MARISSA A · award
WALTON STEUART L. · award
HORTON THOMAS W · award
PENNER GREGORY BOYD · award
HARRIS CARLA A · award
FRIAR SARAH J · award
CONDE CESAR · award
NICCOL BRIAN R · award
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK · award
MORITZ ROBERT EDWARD JR. · award
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $217,800
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $100,432,391
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $467,808,558
WALTON STEUART L. · other
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $248,940,269
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,815,140
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $3,103,000
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $740,914,939
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,721
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $214,223
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,743,318
MCLAY KATHRYN J · sell · $374,000
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $166,883
RAINEY JOHN D · sell · $195,043
STEPHENSON RANDALL L · award
MAYER MARISSA A · award
WALTON STEUART L. · award
PENNER GREGORY BOYD · award
HARRIS CARLA A · award
NICCOL BRIAN R · award
FRIAR SARAH J · award
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK · award
BARTLETT DANIEL J · sell · $167,328
WALTON STEUART L. · other
FURNER JOHN R · sell · $1,600,718
WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST · sell · $344,734,293
MCMILLON C DOUGLAS · sell · $2,391,280
McMillon C Douglas · sell · $2,391,280
earnings 4
EPS 0.61 (est 0.57746) · +0.1%
EPS 0.68 (est 0.73887) · -0.1%
EPS 0.62 (est 0.60128) · +0.0%
EPS 0.74 (est 0.727) · +0.0%

Evidence

16h ago Insider sell by WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST (WMT): $403,009,014
20h ago Is Walmart (WMT) The Best Stock to Buy in 2026 According to Bill Gates? yahoo-finance
2d ago This Retail Giant Is Trading for Half the Price of Walmart and Nearly One-Third the Price of Costco, but Growing 3 Times as Fast yahoo-finance
2d ago 2 Safe Stocks to Buy in Times of Uncertainty yahoo-finance
4d ago My Top 2 Megacap Stocks to Buy After Walmart's Latest Pullback yahoo-finance
4d ago Walmart quietly closes in on Amazon’s biggest lead yahoo-finance
5d ago Jim Cramer Says Retailers Like Walmart Would “Do Well If You Think That We’re Headed Toward a Slowdown Because of Oil Prices” yahoo-finance
6d ago EXCLUSIVE: Can Walmart And Dollar Tree Ride The 'Trade Down' Wave As War-Driven Price Shock Hits Americans? benzinga
7 older signals
10d ago Walmart is quietly becoming a go-to for designer brands
12d ago Insider other by WALTON STEUART L. (WMT): undisclosed value
14d ago Walmart’s (WMT) Indian E-Commerce Firm Flipkart Shifts Holding Company to India from Singapore, Reuters Reports
15d ago The Walmart Metric to Watch in 2026
16d ago Insider sell by WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST (WMT): $740,914,939
16d ago Insider sell by WALTON FAMILY HOLDINGS TRUST (WMT): $248,940,269
16d ago Insider other by WALTON STEUART L. (WMT): undisclosed value

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