AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.

bearish track record → $209.77 -0.80 (-0.4%)
Mkt Cap $2.3T P/E 29.3 fwd 22.3 52wk $161.38 - $258.60 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-30
bearish for 4d | 15 signals · latest 21m ago | updated 5h ago
Bearish 4.5 / 10
Est. revisions: +0.2% (2 up, 3 down in 30d)

Factor Breakdown

net -1.9
Est. Revisions
+0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.3
Analyst Rev.
-0.4
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+10.0

Amazon's AWS Growth Drives $200B Capex Plan

saturated signal density n=69
Factors: +0.01 est. revisions -0.26 momentum -0.38 analyst

Watch: Q1 2026 earnings to reveal AWS margin trends and satellite internet deal progress amid fuel cost surcharges.

Full analysis

Amazon's AWS hit $35.6 billion revenue in Q4 2025, growing 24% year-over-year, with full-year sales at $128.7 billion and a $244 billion backlog up 40%. J.P. Morgan raised its price target to $280, forecasting AWS growth near 29% through 2026 and 26% in 2027, fueled by AI adoption and a $138 billion OpenAI contract. Amazon plans $200 billion capex in 2026, expanding satellite internet by pursuing Globalstar acquisition to challenge SpaceX. Fuel surcharges and geopolitical tensions pressure costs.

Amazon's aggressive AI-driven AWS growth and massive capex reinforce its lead in cloud and satellite markets, while rising operational costs and geopolitical risks add margin pressure.

Position history (7d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-07 2026-04-04
All 7 daily readings
2026-04-04 bearish · medium 7sig
2026-04-01 bearish · high 13sig
2026-03-31 bearish · high 7sig
2026-03-30 bearish · high 11sig
2026-03-19 bullish · high 10sig
2026-03-10 bullish · high 6sig
2026-03-07 bullish · high 36sig
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing highlights use of third-party technology including AI technologies and acknowledges past security incidents and potential for material adverse effects. Also notes that AI and developing technologies may circumvent existing measures, posing security challenges. Prior filing contained a less detailed version and did not specifically mention AI in this context.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
New Items Added

The 2026 filing added 'energy prices,' 'tariff and trade policies,' and 'resource and supply volatility, including for memory chips,' as new specific risk factors which were not mentioned in the 2025 filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing lists a broader set of risks associated with acquisitions and investments, including detailed risks related to integration challenges, regulatory approvals, valuation impairments, and foreign transaction risks such as cultural integration and economic, political, and regulatory risks associated with specific countries.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing discusses complexity of arrangements, infrastructure capacity, potential lower compensation, and risks including loss of management focus, impairment of relationships, revenue variability, and integration difficulties in more detail than prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing includes specific mention of reliance on limited suppliers for semiconductor products related to AI infrastructure such as graphics processing units, and details risks from supplier limitations, violations, and unethical practices potentially exposing the company to claims and reputational damage. Prior filing mentioned semiconductor products but did not highlight AI infrastructure specifically.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing describes system interruptions, causes, potential damages, lack of full redundancy, and sufficiency of disaster recovery planning and insurance in more detail than prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing adds mention of 'adopting and utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies' as a factor increasing strain on management and operations (was not present in prior filing). Prior filing only discussed 'increasing our product and service offerings and scaling our infrastructure.' This reflects a broader technological complexity and operational risk.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing includes additional detailed factors influencing sales fluctuations and growth rate, such as 'factors affecting our reputation or brand image,' 'public perceptions regarding AI and ML development and use,' 'availability of and increases in prices of transportation, resources, commodities, technology infrastructure,' 'constrained labor markets,' and 'operators of networks charging fees to access our stores.' These factors are more specific and comprehensive compared to prior filing's more general list.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing includes expanded detail under disruptions from geopolitical events including 'political conflicts, including those involving China,' labor or trade disputes 'including restrictive governmental actions impacting us in China or other foreign countries,' tariff policy changes including retaliatory actions, and climate change impacts such as increased operating costs due to frequent extreme weather events, increased compliance costs due to more extensive regulations, and reputational damage from environmental impact perceptions. Prior filing mentioned these risks but in less detail.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Current filing elaborates on risks from adding fulfillment and data center capabilities or new businesses with different requirements, and on staffing challenges driven by labor market constraints increasing payroll costs and difficult hiring conditions. Also, mentions risks related to tracking inventory for other companies under some commercial agreements. Prior filing had less detailed description of these risks.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-06
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Equity Investment Agreement

Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amazon.com, Inc., entered into an equity commitment letter agreement to purchase up to $35 billion of OpenAI's Series C Preferred St...

Filed 2026-02-27 · Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC, Amazon.com, Inc.

Get alerted when AMZN changes direction

Direction History

0/1 correct at 5 days
2026-03-07 bullish -2.6%

Related Stocks

Ripple Effect

When AMZN goes bearish, NVDA follows 3x (33% same direction)

Compare

Amazon.com, Inc. Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Mkt Cap
$2.3T
P/E
29.3 fwd 22.3
Beta
1.38
52w Range
$161.38 - $258.60
Short Interest
84.8M 0.87%
Days to Cover
1.8 -2%
Technicals mixed
vs 20d MA
+0.2%
vs 50d MA
-2.4%
from 52w Hi
-17.4%
Vol (20d)
30%
1w return
+1.1%
1m return
-3.2%
3m return
-9.1%
Vol ratio
1.1x
Insiders
selling 0B / 13S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$1.65 +0.2% 30d 2up / 3dn
Est. Dispersion
83% 45 analysts
Analyst Target
$281 $175 - $360
Options P/C
1.20
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 10S
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Tiger Global, Coatue, Pershing Square
Financials
Revenue
$213.4B +14% YoY
FCF
$14.9B
Gross Margin
48%
Op Margin
12%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $15.3B
Citadel $13.2B
Tiger Global $2.3B
Coatue $2.3B
Pershing Square $2.2B
Recent Filings & Data
filing change 10
MEDIUM Language Changes: More comprehensive description of data security risks and AI-related challenges
full analysis

Current filing highlights use of third-party technology including AI technologies and acknowledges past security incidents and potential for material adverse effects. Also notes that AI and developing technologies may circumvent existing measures, posing security challenges. Prior filing contained a less detailed version and did not specifically mention AI in this context.

MEDIUM New Items Added: Addition of new specific risk factors in the current filing.
full analysis

The 2026 filing added 'energy prices,' 'tariff and trade policies,' and 'resource and supply volatility, including for memory chips,' as new specific risk factors which were not mentioned in the 2025 filing.

MEDIUM Language Changes: More extensive list of risks related to acquisitions and investments
full analysis

Current filing lists a broader set of risks associated with acquisitions and investments, including detailed risks related to integration challenges, regulatory approvals, valuation impairments, and foreign transaction risks such as cultural integration and economic, political, and regulatory risks associated with specific countries.

MEDIUM Language Changes: Expanded risks related to commercial agreements and business relationships
full analysis

Current filing discusses complexity of arrangements, infrastructure capacity, potential lower compensation, and risks including loss of management focus, impairment of relationships, revenue variability, and integration difficulties in more detail than prior filing.

MEDIUM Language Changes: Expanded risks in supplier relationships emphasizing AI infrastructure related products
full analysis

Current filing includes specific mention of reliance on limited suppliers for semiconductor products related to AI infrastructure such as graphics processing units, and details risks from supplier limitations, violations, and unethical practices potentially exposing the company to claims and reputational damage. Prior filing mentioned semiconductor products but did not highlight AI infrastructure specifically.

5 more
MEDIUM Expanded language around system interruptions and lack of redundancy risks
MEDIUM Expansion of discussion on challenges due to business scale and technology adoption
MEDIUM Expanded enumeration of factors affecting sales and operating results
MEDIUM More detailed discussion on geopolitical and climate related risks
MEDIUM Expanded risks related to operating fulfillment network and data centers
material event 1
Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amazon.com, Inc., entered into an equity commitment ... SEC↗
Transcript analysis coming soon

Evidence

7 older signals

Get alerted when AMZN changes direction.