ASML ASML Holding N.V.

bullish track record → $1317.23 -42.53 (-3.1%) +1.1% since call
Mkt Cap $517B P/E 46.1 fwd 30.1 52wk $578.51 - $1547.22 Earnings beating
bullish for 4d | event: +1.1% | 15 signals · latest Updated Sunday | updated Updated Sunday
Bullish 2.8 / 10
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions, options_sentiment bullish vs price_momentum, narrative_gap bearish
Est. revisions: -0.1% (7 up, 1 down in 30d)
Next event: Upcoming event (est. 2–8% move)

Factor Breakdown

net +0.7
Est. Revisions
-0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.5
Analyst Rev.
+0.9
Narrative Gap
-0.5

ASML braces for China export curbs, eyes $45B backlog

adequate signal density n=69
Factors: -0.01 est. revisions -0.45 momentum +0.91 analyst divergence

Watch: Q1 earnings on April 15 will reveal how export controls affect demand and execution of the $45B backlog.

Full analysis

ASML faces U.S. export restrictions targeting its advanced lithography systems, risking up to one-third of sales from China. Despite this, ASML closed 2025 with record $15.28B net bookings and a $45.06B backlog, including a $7.9B multi-year order from SK Hynix. Point72 increased ASML shares 33%, backing its transition to High-NA EUV lithography and 2026 sales guidance of 34-39B.

Export restrictions threaten a major revenue source and could dampen Chinese demand, but robust backlog and investor confidence support resilience and growth potential.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-16 2026-03-19
All 4 daily readings
2026-03-19 bullish · high 5sig
2026-03-18 bullish · high 5sig
2026-03-17 bullish · high 4sig
2026-03-16 bullish · high 2sig
$1302.47 2026-03-29

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Event Predictions

bullish ASML Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-15
10d

ASML beats earnings, rallies on accelerating surprise momentum

+1.1% $1302.47 → $1317.23
Thesis

ASML has a 75% beat rate (3/4) with accelerating surprise momentum (Q-4 miss -2.7% → Q-1 beat +3.7% → Q-2 beat +12.4% → Q-3 beat +2.1%), indicating analysts are systematically behind. The sell-the-news probability is only 35% (LOW), and priced-in risk is 0.15 (LOW), meaning the market has already adjusted for caution. Extreme bearish options positioning (P/C 2.97) is a contrarian buy signal. Analyst sentiment is strongly bullish (7 upgrades / 1 downgrade, 88%), with one target at $1,971 (51% upside from $1,302).

ASML Holding N.V. Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Mkt Cap
$517B
P/E
46.1 fwd 30.1
Beta
1.38
Div Yield
67.00%
52w Range
$578.51 - $1547.22
Short Interest
968,576 0.25%
Days to Cover
0.7 -3%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-2.3%
vs 50d MA
-5.5%
from 52w Hi
-13.7%
Vol (20d)
50%
1w return
-0.9%
1m return
-5.9%
3m return
+23.3%
Vol ratio
1.1x
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$6.64 -0.1% 30d 7up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
6% 15 analysts
Analyst Target
$1473 $892 - $1963
Options P/C
2.22
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Bridgewater, Appaloosa, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$9.7B +5% YoY
FCF
$10.9B
Gross Margin
52%
Op Margin
35%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $2.3B
D.E. Shaw $1.2B
Bridgewater $92M
Appaloosa $67M
Renaissance
Recent Filings & Data
earnings 4
EPS 6.0 (est 5.78536) · +0.0%
EPS 5.49 (est 5.37491) · +0.0%
EPS 7.34 (est 7.54521) · -0.0%
EPS 5.9 (est 5.2512) · +0.1%
congress trade 10
Ro Khanna (Democrat-CA) · sell · $1K-$15K
Michael T. McCaul (Republican-TX) · sell · $1K-$15K
Gil Cisneros (Democrat-CA) · buy · $1K-$15K
Michael T. McCaul (Republican-TX) · sell · $1K-$15K
Michael T. McCaul (Republican-TX) · sell · $1K-$15K
5 more
Michael T. McCaul (Republican-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
Michael T. McCaul (Republican-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
Ro Khanna (Democrat-CA) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
Lisa C. McClain (Republican-MI) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
Michael T. McCaul (Republican-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
transcript 4
2025Q4 · 2490 words
read transcript
Monique Mols (Head of Media Relations): Good morning, everyone, good afternoon, depending on where you are, maybe even good night. Welcome to the Q4 full year 2025 financial results press conference. You may not see that when you're dialing in online and you're watching us online, but we are actually in a different location than we were last year. Today, we host the press conference in our training center in the ASML Academy, and that is located at the Brainport Industries campus in Eindhoven. And this is actually the place where we plan our expansion in the Netherlands. So we thought it would be a good idea to invite everyone here in the room to see what our new location is going to look like. There's nothing there to see yet, but this is where we are planning our expansion. And Christophe will talk more about that later in the presentation. My name is Monique Mols, I'm Head of Media Relations. So welcome to you all. I'm really happy to see that there are people in the room and people online. For those online, if you have a question later on, you can fill out the form on the website, and we will take your question from here. If you're in the room, my colleague, Mark will walk around with a microphone and pick up your question. Sorry. So this is our annual results. Forward-looking statements for those who like it. So again, we are here at the Academy. We have several of those training centers all around the world. Here, we have quite a big center where, on average, 400 employees come here every day to get training. So they actually work on the machines that our customers have in their fabs. And every year, we have about 26,500 people coming here to train. So this is a very important location for us. And we're very happy that we can host a press conference here today. With that, I'm not the only one who's going to talk to you today, of course. I have Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen, and they will talk you through the numbers, through the developments, and everything that's happening at ASML. So I would like to invite on stage, Christophe Fouquet. Christophe Fouquet (CEO): Thank you very much, Monique. So Roger will be the one doing the good numbers later on. As you have noticed, we finished the year very, very, very strong with a record quarter record year, record booking. And this is basically a sign of the direction this industry is taking. We are very happy, of course, with the work the ASML team has done, being able to execute on such a big quarter in Q4 and also prepare us basically for 2026. So, a lot of good news today. And again, Roger will get into the numbers. I'd like to say that we welcome also that clarification. In the course of 2025, you have seen that sometimes the business was still a bit uncertain. The last 3 months have really clarified basically at least the horizon for 2026 and most probably a bit beyond that. So before we go into the numbers, I'd like to provide you some context about what's happening in the industry, what is driving basically this type of news today. And of course, the very first thing is AI. You have been hearing about AI already for a couple of years. You have heard major, major announcements about AI infrastructure. I think from the very beginning in ASML, we have been a believer that AI will be a big thing. And this is true because as with semi before, any major application moving forward will not only use semiconductors, but it will also use AI. And I put a few examples of those applications on this slide. It's pretty much everything you can think about when it comes to technology, when it comes to the future of society, this will all rely on AI. If you look at the opportunity, this has been said also before, this will drive basically advanced technology, advanced logic, advanced DRAM. This will also basically drive the entire data infrastructure. And the effect AI can have on the overall GDP is pretty big. In fact, if you look at the U.S., even in 2025, AI was counting for a very large part of the growth, and we expect that basically to be applied to the entire worldwide GDP. So the opportunity is there. What was a bit, I would say, frustrating for us for a while is that where we heard all those news, we heard about all those investments, but basically, this was not yet translating into capacity addition at our customer. I think what the last 3 months have done is change that. We have seen our customer basically moving forward. They start to really believe in the sustainability of the AI demand. That's true for memory, that's true for logic. And as a result, they started to invest. They started to plan for capacity. And of course, this will drive demand for our product at ASML. And when you look at the demand for our product, what's interesting with AI is that this basically touches on all products. Of course, AI is going to require very advanced chips, and this is going to drive EUV, for example. So this year will be a big year for EUV, Roger will ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
2025Q3 · 1523 words
read transcript
Operator (Operator): Hello and welcome to ASML Holding N.V.'s Q3 2025 results video with Christophe Fouquet and Roger Dassen. Roger, if I can start with you and can I ask you to give us a summary of Q3 2025 results? Roger Dassen (CFO): Sure. Net sales came in at €7.5 billion. That included, by the way, the recognition of one High NA system. Also included in there, €2 billion for installed base revenue. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.6%, all of that I would say within guidance. Net income for the quarter came in at €2.1 billion and we recorded net bookings for the quarter of €5.4 billion, included in there €3.6 billion for EV. Operator (Operator): And Roger, can I ask you to give us guidance on Q4 2025 as well as the full year for 2025? Roger Dassen (CFO): Sure. So for the quarter, we are looking at revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion. It's a big quarter, a lot bigger than last quarter. But actually that's as planned also as we communicated before. And it's also what we saw in 2024. We also had a very big Q4 there. Included in that number would be an installed base revenue of approximately €2.1 billion. The gross margin for the quarter somewhere between 51-53%. If you then take that to the full year, we would be looking at a full year around €32.5 billion in terms of net sales. The gross margin, we say around 52%. As a matter of fact, you take the midpoint of the guidance for the quarter, you get a little bit above the 52% for the full year. Operator (Operator): Christophe, if I could ask you then to give us your view on how you are seeing the market at the moment. Christophe Fouquet (CEO): Yeah. I think we have seen a flow of positive news in the last few months that have helped to reduce the uncertainty, some of the uncertainties we discussed last quarter. First, we continue to see strong news about commitment to AI, which means we think investment in advanced logic and DRAM. Second, and it's very important for us, it looks like AI is going to benefit a larger part of our customer base. Third, we continue to make very good progress with our litho intensity, especially with EUV that continue to be adopted with DRAM and advanced logic customers. On the other hand, when we look at China, we believe that the demand of our Chinese customers is going to be significantly lower in 2026 than it has been in 2024 and '25 where we had very strong business there. Operator (Operator): So what does that mean then for ASML Holding N.V. in 2026? Christophe Fouquet (CEO): Well, we believe that the impact of these dynamics will only be effective partially in 2026. But still for 2026, we expect our net sales to not be below 2025. If we look at our product mix, the dynamics are going to favor UV, which we believe will increase, while the dynamic in China will most probably lower the business in Deep UV. And we will provide more details about 2026 in our January call. Operator (Operator): Turning to technology. Roger, can I ask you to give us your thoughts on the recent announcement that we had in terms of the collaboration with ASML Holding N.V. and Mistral AI? Roger Dassen (CFO): Yes, indeed. We entered into a partnership with Mistral AI. I think Mistral is really recognized on a number of fronts. I think they're recognized for their business-to-business approach. They're also recognized for the quality of their large language model, particularly when it comes to software coding and software coding development. So they're recognized for that. That's the reason why we entered into the partnership with them because many people look at ASML Holding N.V., look at our products and really look at hardware. But I think increasingly people appreciate the very significant software content that is within those systems. I think people really understand that if you get to the level of precision and the level of speed that we have in our scanners, but also quite frankly what we need in metrology and inspection, it's pretty clear that the software contingent therein becomes increasingly important. So that's the reason why this is very strategic to us, why it's very strategic to improving the performance, improving the precision and the speed of our tools as we bring them to our customers. So therefore, this collaboration is truly a strategic choice for us. I would also say that on top of the significance that it has for our products, AI is also a great way to improve the speed of our product development, to improve the speed of our time to market of any product development to our customers. And that's another big area that we're collaborating with Mistral on. So all in all, we believe a very strategic partnership. We also, to underscore that strategic partnership, as you know, we were the lead investor for their Series C funding round. And by being the lead investor, we took approximately an 11% share in Mistral. We also have a seat on their strategic committee. We truly believe that by doing this, we also ge ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
2025Q2 · 8718 words
read transcript
Operator (Operator): Good day, and thank you for being here. Welcome to the ASML 2025 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 16, 2025. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please proceed. Jim Kavanagh (Vice President of Investor Relations): Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2025 second quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com, and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction. Christophe D. Fouquet (CEO): Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2025 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter results as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger? Roger J. M. Dassen (CFO): Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. Let me start with our second quarter accomplishments. In the second quarter of 2025, total net sales were EUR 7.7 billion, which is at the upper end of our guidance, primarily due to revenue recognition of one High NA system and additional upgrade business. Net system sales were at EUR 5.6 billion, which includes EUR 2.7 billion from EUV sales and EUR 2.9 billion from non-EUV sales. Net system sales were driven by Logic at 69% and the remaining 31% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in above the guidance at EUR 2.1 billion. Gross margin for the quarter was above guidance at 53.7%, driven by an increase in upgrade business, one-off items resulting in lower cost and lower-than-expected impact from tariffs, which was partially offset by the dilutive effect from the High NA system revenue recognition. Operating expenses came in as guided with R&D expenses at EUR 1.2 billion and SG&A expenses at EUR 299 million. The effective tax rate for Q2 was 18.1%. For the full year 2025, we still expect an annualized effective tax rate of around 17%. Net income in Q2 was EUR 2.3 billion, representing 29.8% of total net sales and resulting in an earnings per share of EUR 5.90. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 7.2 billion. Moving to the order book. Q2 net system bookings came in at EUR 5.5 billion, which is made up of EUR 2.3 billion of EUV and EUR 3.2 billion of non-EUV. Net system bookings in the quarter were weighted towards Logic at 84% of the bookings, while Memory accounted for the remaining 16%. Regarding our backlog, we ended Q2 at around EUR 33 billion. In addition to the regular changes from system sales and bookings, this reflects an adjustment of EUR 1.4 billion in Q2 related to customers' response to 2024. In Q2, ASML paid a final dividend of EUR 1.84 per ordinary share. Together with the interim dividend paid in 2024 and 2025, this resulted in a total dividend for 2024 of EUR 6.40 per ordinary share. The first quarterly interim dividend over 2025 will be EUR 1.60 per ordinary share and will be made payable on August 6, 2025. In Q2 2025, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR 1.4 billion, bringing the total share buyback of our program to EUR 5.8 billion at the end of Q2 2025. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe. Christophe D. Fouquet (CEO): Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we finished the second quarter with good financial results. Turning to the market. As we have said in recent quarters, artificial intelligence is the key driver of growth in Memory and Logic at this point. For Logic, we expect system revenue to increase in 2025 compared to 2024 as customers add capacity on leading-edge nodes. In Memory, we expect system revenue to remain strong in 2025 as our customers transition to their next nodes i ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
2025Q1 · 8399 words
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Operator (Operator): Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2025 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 16, 2025. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's introduction, there'll be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead. Jim Kavanagh (Vice President of Investor Relations): Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2025 first quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities Law. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction. Christophe Fouquet (CEO): Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2025 results conference call. Before we begin our Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter results, as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger? Roger Dassen (CFO): Thank you, Christophe, and welcome everyone. Let me start with our first quarter accomplishments. In the first quarter of 2025, total net sales were EUR7.7 billion, in line with our guidance. Net system sales were at EUR5.7 billion, which includes EUR3.2 billion from EUV sales and EUR2.5 billion from non-EUV sales. Net system sales were driven by Logic at 58% and the remaining 42% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR2.0 billion. Gross margin for the quarter was above guidance at 54%, driven by achieving customer productivity milestones on already installed EUV systems, as well as a favorable EUV product mix and enriched configuration resulting in higher ASPs. Operating expenses were in line with guidance with R&D expenses at EUR1.161 billion and SG&A expenses at EUR281 million. The effective tax rate for Q1 was 16.7%. For 2025, we expect an annualized effective tax rate of around 17%. Net income in Q1 was EUR2.4 billion, representing 30.4% of total net sales and resulting in an earnings per share of EUR6. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at a level of EUR9.1 billion. After the very strong free cash flow generation in Q4, we ended Q1 with a free cash flow of minus EUR475 million, due to a combination of customer payment and downpayment dynamics and continued investments in fixed assets for future capacity. Moving to the order book. Q1 net system bookings came in at EUR3.9 billion, which is made up of EUR1.2 billion of EUV and approximately EUR2.8 billion of non-EUV. Net system bookings in the quarter were weighted towards Logic at 60% of the bookings while Memory accounted for the remaining 40%. In Q1, ASML paid the third quarterly interim dividend over 2024 of EUR1.52 per ordinary share. Recognizing the three interim dividends of EUR1.52 per ordinary share each, paid in 2024 and 2025, with a final dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting of EUR1.84 per ordinary share, this would result in a total dividend for the year 2024 of EUR6.40 per ordinary share. In Q1 2025, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR2.7 billion. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe. Christophe Fouquet (CEO): Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we started 2025 with good first quarter financial results. Turning to the markets, and consistent with our view from last quarter, the growth in Artificial Intelligence remains the key driver for growth in our industry. If AI demand continues to be strong, and customers are successful in bringing on additional capacity to support that demand, there is potential opportunity towards the upper end of our range. On the other hand, there is still quite some uncertainty for a number of our customers ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
ASML is listed outside the US — no SEC insider filings
ASML does not file 10-K/10-Q with the SEC

Evidence

7 older signals
12d ago Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
12d ago Gil Cisneros (D-CA) buy $1K-$15K of ASML
12d ago Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
12d ago Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
12d ago Lisa C. McClain (R-MI) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
12d ago Ro Khanna (D-CA) sell $1K-$15K of ASML

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