BA The Boeing Company
mixed · high conviction SHIFT track record → $208.22 +0.90 (+0.4%) +0.0% since callFactor Breakdown
net -5.1Boeing backlogs surge; strikes and delays persist
Watch: Q1 2026 earnings report and FAA certification updates will reveal if production issues and cost overruns are easing or worsening.
Full analysis
Boeing holds a massive $682 billion backlog including 6,100 airplane orders and a key new seven-year Defense Department deal to triple missile component production. The company posted 34% revenue growth to $89.5 billion in 2025 with free cash flow turning positive at $1.06 billion. However, a 101-day strike in 2025 disrupted defense programs, and the 777X program added $4.9 billion in losses due to delays. Production issues slowed the 737 rate, delaying deliveries and impacting margins amid safety upgrades and Spirit acquisition costs.
Despite strong order momentum and revenue growth, Boeing faces cost pressures from strikes, production delays, and fixed-price contract losses that could limit near-term profit and cash flow expansion.
Comparing prior filing, which reported 2024 revenues of $66,517 million and net loss of $11,817 million, the current filing reports 2025 revenues of $89,463 million and net earnings of $2,235 million.
Capital expenditures were $2.9 billion in 2025, up from $2.2 billion in 2024, with expected further growth in 2026.
IAM 751 work stoppage from Sep-Nov 2024 ended with new contract ratified Nov 2024; production resumed Dec 2024 with gradual ramp-up in 2025; IAM 837 work stoppage starting August 2025 ended with ratification in November 2025 affecting St. Louis defense programs. Labor disruptions caused production pauses and financial impacts.
Current filing adds details about a 101-day strike in 2025 by IAM District 837 representing approximately 3,200 employees at St. Louis, which disrupted key defense programs. It also updates union representation to approximately 72,000 employees or 40% of workforce with 32 independent agreements with 9 unions in the U.S. and 18 employee representative bodies internationally. Prior filing had 58,000 employees (34%) union represented, 9 unions with 27 agreements in the U.S., and noted IAM 751 strike.
Current filing specifies that the 777X program, launched in 2013 and expecting first delivery in 2027, recognized additional reach-forward losses of $4.9 billion in 2025 and $3.5 billion in 2024 primarily due to production challenges, certification and delivery delays, and higher labor and supplier costs. Prior filing referred generally to delays without dollar specifics.
Prior filing notes FAA investigation of 737 quality control system including Spirit and increased oversight due to FAA identified multiple manufacturing quality control non-compliances. Current filing describes complex commercial airplane system including thousands of employees and stringent regulatory requirements but does not reference the FAA's specific increased oversight or compliance failures as explicitly.
Current filing details slowing 737 production rates and delay of production rate increases to reduce traveled work following the 737-9 door plug accident in January 2024 as part of safety and quality improvements, significantly impacting financial results. Also mentions the Spirit Acquisition in December 2025 affecting financial position. Prior filing referenced slowing 737 production rates but emphasized impact mainly from IAM 751 strike and FAA investigation.
Current filing includes updated 2025 U.S. government revenue percentage (35% vs 42% in prior filing for 2024), renames Department of Defense as Department of War (DoW), discusses risks of government shutdowns, furloughs, payment delays with examples, continuing resolutions impacts, and specific references to Management Discussion on government funding. Prior filing used more generic descriptions.
Current filing states BDS and BGS generated ~60% of 2025 revenues from fixed-price contracts and notes large additional fixed-price losses like $5 billion on major 2024 development programs. Prior filing specified fixed-price contracts revenues percentages differently (54% and 63%) and discussed $5 billion losses on five programs similarly but less detailed on earnings charges and contributing factors.
Current filing presents detailed cybersecurity threats involving advanced automation and artificial intelligence techniques, multiple actor types including nation-states and organized crime, evolving risks requiring constant vigilance, risk of supply chain attacks, and consequences including intellectual property loss and reputational harm. Prior filing describes cybersecurity threats generally and references past incidents but less emphasis on emerging technologies and evolving threat sophistication.
Current filing states debt as $54.1 billion as of Dec 31, 2025 versus $53.9 billion at end 2024 in prior filing; airplane financing commitments decreased from $17.1 billion to $15.2 billion; discusses $15.5 billion principal payments over next 3 years vs $13.6 billion; includes dividend payment requirements of $345 million annually on Mandatory convertible preferred stock through October 2027. Prior filing discussed expected assumption of Spirit's net debt which current filing confirms closed Dec 2025.
Prior filing details Spirit acquisition as pending with regulatory approvals and consummation conditions, noted stockholder approval in January 2025 and various risks if not completed. Current filing states Spirit Acquisition completed in December 2025, with risks of integration difficulties possibly affecting anticipated benefits and financial condition.
On October 31, 2025, the company completed the divestiture of portions of its BGS segment's Digital Aviation Solutions business for $10.55 billion. On December 8, 2025, the company completed the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. by exchanging approximately $4.7 billion of Boeing shares.
The 2024 IAM 751 work stoppage paused production and ended with ratification of a new contract on November 4, 2024; production resumed in December 2024. The 2025 IAM 837 work stoppage disrupted St. Louis operations and ended with ratification on November 13, 2025.
Prior: FAA had grounded 737-9 after door plug detach incident and approved enhanced maintenance; production slowed; IAM 751 strike paused production in Sept 2024. Now: The January 5, 2024 737-9 door plug accident led to FAA investigation requiring additional quality controls; production rates were slowed and planned increases delayed; additional quality and safety investments and cultural improvements are made; 737-9 door plug accident significantly impacted 2024 and 2025 financials; FAA approval in Oct 2025 for production rate increase back to 42 per month, planning further rate increases and new production line.
Backlog increased from $521 billion in 2024 to $682 billion in 2025, driven by BCA and BDS. The 2025 filing includes specific mention of backlog adjustments including cancellations of $11 billion and ASC 606 accounting adjustments related to 777X and 787 models, while the 2024 filing provides earlier backlog details with a reduction in BCA backlog.
2024 filing: First delivery delayed to 2026; production ramp slowed; reach-forward loss recorded. 2026 filing: FAA approval obtained over phases of certification in 2024-25; certification phases delayed; first delivery pushed to 2027; extensive description of durability issues and projected losses of $4.9 billion; plans to ramp production are slower.
2026 filing elaborates on regional economic and geopolitical difficulties adding uncertainty to outlook and financial viability of airlines/regions, plus positive long-term fundamentals including 3.1% fleet growth forecast over 20 years. 2025 filing mentions similar themes but less detail and projects 3.2% fleet growth with slightly higher GDP growth assumptions.
2026 filing discusses government funding lapses from Oct 1 to Nov 12, 2025 and potential partial shutdown from Jan 30, 2026. It details impacts on contracts and operations due to government shutdown. It also describes new tariff agreements in 2025 and ongoing US-China trade tensions, including temporary delivery pauses by Chinese customers and tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico and materials.
2026 filing details inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, financial difficulties at suppliers, and impact from tariffs and export restrictions. Mentions reach-forward losses of $1.77 billion on T-7A Red Hawk in 2024 and reach-forward losses on KC-46A and Commercial Crew programs; additional $777X reach-forward losses in 2025 largely due to supplier cost increases. 2025 filing mentions similar supply chain and inflation issues but omits recent tariff and export restriction impacts.
2026 filing reports consolidated 2025 revenues of $89.5 billion, earnings from operations of $4.3 billion, and net earnings attributable to shareholders of $2.2 billion. 2025 filing reports consolidated 2024 revenues of $66.5 billion and a loss from operations of $10.7 billion. Segment earnings improved substantially in 2025 compared with 2024 for all segments, especially BGS due to the divestiture gain.
The 2026 filing specifies that the 777X program, launched in 2013 with expected first delivery in 2027, recognized additional reach-forward losses of $4.9 billion in 2025 and $3.5 billion in 2024, due to production challenges, certification and delivery delays, and higher labor and supplier costs. This level of detail is new compared to the prior filing.
The 2026 filing adds detailed descriptions of two strikes: IAM District 751 strike in 2024 lasting 53 days impacting commercial aircraft and defense products, and IAM District 837 strike in 2025 lasting 101 days impacting St. Louis operations including several programs. These strikes caused material adverse impacts on business and financial results and are new disclosures.
The 2026 filing states plans to increase 737 production rate to 47 per month in 2026 and mentions further production rate increases requiring a new production line, as well as 787 production rate increase plans. The 2025 filing only mentioned plans to adjust production rates but did not disclose specific 47 per month target or new line need.
The 2026 filing confirms the Spirit Acquisition closing in December 2025 and discusses integration risks, operational challenges, and potential adverse impacts on financial results, a progression from the pending acquisition description in 2025.
The 2026 filing adds more specific risks including supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, labor instability, and specifically mentions the impact of the Spirit Acquisition on supply chain and operations. The prior filing is less detailed on these operational challenges.
Debt increased slightly from $53.9 billion in 2024 to $54.1 billion in 2025. Principal payments due increased from $13.6 billion to $15.5 billion over next three years. Airplane financing commitments decreased from $17.1 billion to $15.2 billion.
Both filings describe dividend payment policy for 6.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, with same dividend rate and terms, confirming continuation with no changes.
On December 8, 2025, we completed the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (Spirit) by exchanging approximately $4.7 billion of Boeing shares for all of Spirit's outstanding shares. This includes Boeing-related commercial operations such as fuselages for 737, P-8 and KC-46A Tanker programs, and defense and aftermarket businesses. Spirit employs around 15,000 people.
On October 31, 2025, we completed the divestiture of portions of our BGS segment's Digital Aviation Solutions business for $10.55 billion in an all-cash transaction. This significantly impacted 2025 financial position, results of operations, and cash flows.
Prior filing stated: 'While our principal operations are in the U.S., we conduct operations in an expanding number of non-U.S. partners, key suppliers and subcontractors.' Current filing states: 'While our principal operations are in the U.S., we conduct operations in an expanding number of countries and rely on an extensive network of U.S. and non-U.S. partners, key suppliers and subcontractors.'
Prior filing: 'Approximately 80% of BCA's total backlog, in dollar terms, is with non-U.S. airlines.' Current filing: 'Approximately 85% of BCA's total backlog, in dollar terms, is with non-U.S. airlines.'
Current filing adds detailed information on the FAA investigation, increased oversight including Spirit, production rate takedown, and delayed certifications for 737-7 and 737-10 models. It also describes planned production rate increases along with phased FAA approvals.
On November 4, 2024, IAM 751 ratified a contract ending a work stoppage initiated on September 13, 2024, which paused production of certain models. Production resumed in December 2024 and ramped up gradually in 2025. On November 13, 2025, IAM 837 ratified a new contract ending a work stoppage started August 4, 2025, disrupting St. Louis operations including key defense programs.
Contracts with Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace representing 16,000 employees scheduled to expire in October 2026, which could have material impacts.
Total revenues for 2025 were $89,463 million compared to $66,517 million in 2024. BCA revenues increased by $18,633 million primarily driven by higher deliveries, BDS revenues increased by $3,316 million and BGS revenues increased by $969 million.
GAAP Earnings from operations increased to $4,281 million in 2025 vs. a loss of $10,707 million in 2024. Net earnings attributable to Boeing shareholders was $2,235 million compared to a loss of $11,817 million in 2024. This improvement stemmed from increased deliveries, divestiture gain, and reduced contract charges.
2025 BGS earnings from operations increased to $13,474 million from $3,618 million in 2024, driven by gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions Divestiture. BDS loss from operations decreased substantially from $5,413 million loss to $128 million loss. BCA loss narrowed slightly from $7,969 million to $7,079 million.
In 2025, FAA approvals for successive phases of 777X certification occurred, with flight testing paused and resumed; first delivery delayed to 2027 from prior 2026 estimate; and an incremental reach-forward loss of $4,899 million recorded due to production challenges and delays.
In 2025, 737 production rate recovered from below 38/month to 42/month by fourth quarter, with FAA concurrence. Planning rate increase from 42 to 47/month in 2026 and potential additional production lines noted.
From October 1 to November 12, 2025, various government departments including Department of War, NASA and DOT lacked funding, with legislation in November 2025 funding at FY25 levels through Jan 30, 2026. After Jan 30, 2026, a partial shutdown expected unless full-year appropriations or continuing resolutions enacted. Shutdown could negatively impact contracts, payments, operations and future orders.
In 2025, U.S. reached bilateral trade agreements including UK, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and EU. U.S. and China extended pause on reciprocal tariffs to Nov 10, 2026. Certain Chinese customers paused deliveries temporarily in response to tariffs. Multiple tariffs on aluminum, steel and copper imports remain; overall trade environment volatile and closely monitored.
Prior filing described 737-9 door plug accident's impact mainly in 2024; Current filing expands financial impact discussion to include both 2024 and 2025, noting slowing production rates, delayed increases, and overall significant impact on financial position, results and cash flows over two years.
The Spirit Acquisition in December 2025 included payment/assumption of Spirit debt and significantly impacted liquidity and capital resources in 2025, including a $4.7 billion equity exchange and debt assumption, and increasing debt balances.
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Event Predictions
BA earnings miss likely; deteriorating surprise momentum and analyst downgrades
Thesis
Boeing faces a high-probability earnings miss or disappointing beat on 2026-04-22. Estimate revisions have collapsed 38.1% with analyst revisions uniformly negative (0up/4down), while surprise momentum is decelerating sharply (+2448% Q-4 → +62.4% Q-1 → +2.4% Q-2 → -214% Q-3 miss). Insiders are net selling ($4.98M vs $0.6M buy), and the stock is down 8.4% in 1m and 17.42% from 52w high. Despite a 75% historical beat rate, the deteriorating trend suggests analysts have caught up to reality, and the next beat (if it occurs) will likely fail to surprise. The 35% sell-the-news probability indicates the market has already priced in downside, leaving limited upside cushion.
full analysis
Comparing prior filing, which reported 2024 revenues of $66,517 million and net loss of $11,817 million, the current filing reports 2025 revenues of $89,463 million and net earnings of $2,235 million.
full analysis
Capital expenditures were $2.9 billion in 2025, up from $2.2 billion in 2024, with expected further growth in 2026.
full analysis
IAM 751 work stoppage from Sep-Nov 2024 ended with new contract ratified Nov 2024; production resumed Dec 2024 with gradual ramp-up in 2025; IAM 837 work stoppage starting August 2025 ended with ratification in November 2025 affecting St. Louis defense programs. Labor disruptions caused production pauses and financial impacts.
full analysis
Current filing adds details about a 101-day strike in 2025 by IAM District 837 representing approximately 3,200 employees at St. Louis, which disrupted key defense programs. It also updates union representation to approximately 72,000 employees or 40% of workforce with 32 independent agreements with 9 unions in the U.S. and 18 employee representative bodies internationally. Prior filing had 58,000 employees (34%) union represented, 9 unions with 27 agreements in the U.S., and noted IAM 751 strike.
full analysis
Current filing specifies that the 777X program, launched in 2013 and expecting first delivery in 2027, recognized additional reach-forward losses of $4.9 billion in 2025 and $3.5 billion in 2024 primarily due to production challenges, certification and delivery delays, and higher labor and supplier costs. Prior filing referred generally to delays without dollar specifics.
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