ARM Arm Holdings plc

bullish · high conviction track record → $151.28 +14.32 (+10.5%)
Mkt Cap $153B P/E 192.2 fwd 67.4 52wk $80.00 - $183.16 Earnings beating
bullish for 3d | 15 signals · latest 3d ago | updated 1d ago
Bullish high conviction n=61
Insider selling: $8,499,650 sold by 3 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -0.4% (19 up, 1 down in 30d)

ARM enters AI chip market with $15B revenue target

sweet_spot signal density n=61
Factors: -0.03 est. revisions -0.11 momentum +0.95 analyst

Watch: H2 2026 production ramp and design wins beyond Meta—customer traction and AGI CPU gross margins will validate the $15B-in-5-years thesis and justify analyst price targets ranging from $200 to $240.

Full analysis

Arm Holdings moved from pure IP licensing into chip manufacturing on March 24–25, unveiling the AGI CPU—a 136-core data center processor built on TSMC's 3-nanometer process. The company projects $15 billion in annual AGI CPU revenue within five years, combined with existing operations to reach $25 billion total revenue and $9 EPS by fiscal 2031. Meta Platforms signed as the lead commercial customer. Stock surged 15–16% on announcement, with recent beats and 19 upward estimate revisions in 30 days confirming analyst confidence in this structural shift.

Arm breaks its 97.6% gross margin licensing ceiling by directly competing in the $300B+ AI data center market against NVIDIA and AMD, anchoring customers to its architecture for the decade ahead while unlocking direct product revenue and margin expansion.

Position history (3d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-26 2026-03-28

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Why We're Bullish

net 1.1
Estimate Revisions
-0.0
estimates -0.4% in 30d
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
-0.1
+21.6% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
+0.9
upgrades > downgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

Compare

Arm Holdings plc Technology · Semiconductors
Mkt Cap
$153B
P/E
192.2 fwd 67.4
Beta
4.13
52w Range
$80.00 - $183.16
Short Interest
14.7M 10.56%
Days to Cover
3.9 -14%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+16.2%
vs 50d MA
+22.4%
from 52w Hi
-15.3%
Vol (20d)
84%
1w return
+12.1%
1m return
+21.6%
3m return
+36.9%
Vol ratio
2.0x
Insiders
selling 0B / 4S
Analysts
bullish 3 up / 0 down
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.58 -0.4% 30d 19up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
14% 28 analysts
Analyst Target
$165 $95 - $240
Options P/C
0.72 3C / 4P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 3S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Coatue, D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$1.2B +26% YoY
FCF
$181M
Gross Margin
98%
Op Margin
15%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $857M
Coatue $251M
D.E. Shaw $235M
Two Sigma $78M
Renaissance $52M
Recent Filings & Data
earnings 4
EPS 0.43 (est 0.40919) · +0.1%
EPS 0.55 (est 0.52362) · +0.1%
EPS 0.39 (est 0.33134) · +0.2%
EPS 0.35 (est 0.3511) · -0.0%
insider trade 4
net selling · $8,499,650 sold
3 insiders · 4 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
CHILD JASON E · sell · $3,157,314
HAAS RENE A · sell · $5,131,328
Haas Rene A. · sell · $32,630
Haas Rene A. · sell · $178,378
analyst rating 10
Needham up → Buy 6d ago
Raymond James up → Outperform 7d ago
HSBC up → Buy 12d ago

Evidence

Get alerted when ARM changes direction.