SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc.

bearish · high conviction track record → $22.77 +1.71 (+8.1%)
Mkt Cap $13B P/E 16.0 fwd 7.3 52wk $19.48 - $62.36 Earnings mixed
bearish for 2d | 15 signals · latest 13h ago | updated 2d ago
Bearish high conviction n=61
Insider selling: $91,813,747 sold by 15 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: +0.3%

Co-founder indicted for $2.5B China chip smuggle scheme

adequate signal density n=61
Factors: +0.02 est. revisions +0.51 momentum

Watch: SEC filing or successor auditor announcement within 30 days; any control-issue flags trigger institutional flight and reset fair value downward.

Full analysis

Co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun were indicted on March 20 for illegally exporting $2.5B in Nvidia AI chips to China since 2024. SMCI stock crashed 33% in a single session; Citigroup slashed its price target 35% from $39 to $25 citing "reputation risks." Despite record fiscal Q2 revenue of $12.7B (up 123% YoY), the scandal reveals structural control failures: Ernst & Young quit as auditor in October 2024, insiders have dumped $72.5M across eight distinct sellers, and a March 26 bounce of 8.2% appears tactical rather than fundamental.

Criminal liability for top executives plus documented auditor departure during a massive sales volume disguises margin collapse and supply-chain jeopardy. Forward PE of 6.9x and analyst consensus target of $34.53 depend entirely on criminal charges resolving favorably—a legal outcome that could take years and faces long odds given indictment evidence.

Position history (2d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-26 2026-03-28
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Departure and Compliance Appointment

Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced that three individuals associated with the Company—Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw (Senior Vice President of Business Development and Board member), Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Cha...

Filed 2026-03-20 · Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw, Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Chang

Get alerted when SMCI changes direction

Why We're Bearish

net 0.6
Estimate Revisions
+0.0
estimates +0.3% in 30d
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
+0.5
-28.5% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
+0.0
mixed
Narrative Gap
+0.5
news more bullish than data

Compare

vs NVDA vs AMD vs AAPL vs TSLA vs MSFT vs META vs GOOGL vs AMZN vs TSM vs ASML
Super Micro Computer, Inc. Technology · Computer Hardware
Mkt Cap
$13B
P/E
16.0 fwd 7.3
Beta
1.49
52w Range
$19.48 - $62.36
Short Interest
88.5M 19.7%
Days to Cover
3.6 +3%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-17.9%
vs 50d MA
-24.1%
from 52w Hi
-62.5%
Vol (20d)
134%
1w return
+2.4%
1m return
-28.5%
3m return
-24.3%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 0B / 6S
Earnings
mixed 2B / 2M
EPS Estimate
$0.62 +0.3% 30d 0up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
18% 16 analysts
Analyst Target
$35 $15 - $58
Options P/C
0.41
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 8S
Fund Convergence
moderate Citadel, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$12.7B +123% YoY
FCF
$-45M
Gross Margin
6%
Op Margin
4%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $814M
D.E. Shaw $5M
Recent Filings & Data
earnings 4
EPS 0.31 (est 0.29872) · +0.0%
EPS 0.41 (est 0.4389) · -0.1%
EPS 0.35 (est 0.38923) · -0.1%
EPS 0.69 (est 0.48789) · +0.4%
insider trade 110
net selling · $91,813,747 sold
15 insiders · 110 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · exercise · $88,850
LIANG CHARLES · exercise · $88,850
CHEUNG KENNETH · other
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
XIAO JIN · other
CHEUNG KENNETH · other
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
XIAO JIN · other
LIU TALLY C · other
TUAN SHERMAN · sell · $1,604,790
LIANG CHARLES · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
KAO GEORGE W · sell · $1,868,221
KAO GEORGE W · exercise · $573,507
KAO GEORGE W · exercise · $276,103
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
KAO GEORGE W · other
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
KAO GEORGE W · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · sell · $1,128,500
WEIGAND DAVID E · exercise · $132,600
WEIGAND DAVID E · sell · $1,007,281
KAO GEORGE W · sell · $1,755,200
KAO GEORGE W · exercise · $107,800
CHEUNG KENNETH · other
CLEGG DON W · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
KAO GEORGE W · other
LIANG CHARLES · sell · $12,000,000
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · sell · $12,000,000
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
KAO GEORGE W · other
LIN JUDY L · other
MOGENSEN SUSAN · other
ANGEL SCOTT · other
BLAIR ROBERT L · other
LIU TALLY C · other
TUAN SHERMAN · other
LIANG CHARLES · sell · $13,500,000
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · sell · $13,500,000
WEIGAND DAVID E · sell · $2,949,494
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
LIANG CHARLES · sell · $8,989,316
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · sell · $9,004,622
KAO GEORGE W · sell · $1,302,424
KAO GEORGE W · exercise · $76,538
CHEUNG KENNETH · other
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
BLAIR ROBERT L · sell · $828,557
BLAIR ROBERT L · exercise · $357,000
LIANG CHARLES · sell · $2,322,566
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · sell · $2,322,566
KAO GEORGE W · sell · $3,620,712
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
LIU TALLY C · other
KAO GEORGE W · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · exercise · $5,847,922
LIANG CHARLES · exercise · $5,847,922
TUAN SHERMAN · exercise · $97,975
CLEGG DON W · other
KAO GEORGE W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
LIAW YIH SHYAN WALLY · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
LIN JUDY L · other
LIU TALLY C · other
TUAN SHERMAN · other
FAIRFAX DANIEL W · other
FAIRFAX DANIEL W · sell · $240,600
LIU TALLY C · sell · $419,586
CLEGG DON W · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
LIANG CHARLES · other
WEIGAND DAVID E · other
FAIRFAX DANIEL W · sell · $233,208
LIANG CHARLES · sell · $456,552
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · sell · $456,552
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · exercise · $22,234
LIANG CHARLES · exercise · $22,234
FAIRFAX DANIEL W · sell · $303,000
material event 1
Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced that three individuals associated with the Company—Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw (Senior V... SEC↗

Evidence

13h ago Super Micro Faces a New Securities Fraud Lawsuit. How Much Does That Matter for SMCI Stock? yahoo-finance
1d ago Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Reputation and Operations on the Line: Barclays Warns yahoo-finance
3d ago Reddit Sentiment on SMCI Collapsed From 82 to 12 in Three Weeks as Legal Crisis Deepens yahoo-finance
4d ago With Super Micro Facing Challenges, Is Dell Stock a Better Buy? yahoo-finance
5d ago Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced that three individuals associated with the
5d ago Stock Market News for Mar 26, 2026 - Yahoo Finance Singapore google-news-market
7d ago Stock Market Today, March 24: Super Micro Computer Rises Despite Regulatory Scrutiny and Analyst Downgrades - Yahoo Finance google-news-market
10d ago Insider exercise by LIANG CHARLES (SMCI): $22,234
7 older signals
10d ago Insider exercise by LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA (SMCI): $22,234
10d ago Insider other by WEIGAND DAVID E (SMCI): undisclosed value
10d ago Insider other by LIANG CHARLES (SMCI): undisclosed value
10d ago Insider other by LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA (SMCI): undisclosed value
10d ago Insider other by CLEGG DON W (SMCI): undisclosed value
10d ago Insider other by FAIRFAX DANIEL W (SMCI): undisclosed value
10d ago Insider other by TUAN SHERMAN (SMCI): undisclosed value

Get alerted when SMCI changes direction.