V Visa Inc.

bearish · high conviction track record → $302.24 +2.70 (+0.9%)
Mkt Cap $588B P/E 28.7 fwd 21.0 52wk $297.03 - $375.51 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-28
15 signals · latest 7h ago | updated 19h ago
Bearish high conviction n=61
Insider selling: $195,091,673 sold by 15 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish
Est. revisions: +0.0% (22 up, 3 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
≠
We disagree with Wall Street. Analyst consensus: bullish. Our position: bearish. See factor model below for why.

FTC enforcement threat deepens Visa's downtrend

structured data adequate signal density n=61
Factors: -0.44 momentum +0.91 analyst divergence

Watch: FTC compliance deadline and Visa's response during next earnings call; continued insider selling would confirm deteriorating conviction, while a cluster of insider buys would suggest executives view current prices as attractive despite regulatory headwinds.

Full analysis

Visa is down 20% to 52-week lows as two distinct pressures collide. The FTC issued formal warning letters in March 2026 requiring compliance with Trump's August 2025 executive order banning service restrictions based on political affiliation or lawful business—enforcement action threatened if deadlines missed. Price momentum is sharply negative: down 6.7% in one month, 16.6% in three months, 4.4% below the 20-day moving average, and trading in a confirmed downtrend. Insiders amplify the bearish signal with seven distinct sellers unloading $68 million and zero buyers, reflecting management lack of conviction at current levels.

The regulatory risk forces Visa into a compliance-driven posture on debanking just as momentum collapses, while insider selling signals management sees limited near-term upside despite a 14.6% revenue growth rate and 81.7% gross margins. Analyst consensus target averages $399, implying 27% upside from current levels, but execution risk on both regulatory and momentum fronts now dominates the thesis.

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Why We're Bearish

net 0.8
Estimate Revisions
+0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
-0.4
-5.7% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
+0.9
upgrades > downgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

⚠ DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish

Compare

vs NVDA vs AMD vs AAPL vs TSLA vs MSFT vs META vs GOOGL vs AMZN vs TSM vs ASML
Visa Inc. Financial Services · Credit Services
Mkt Cap
$588B
P/E
28.7 fwd 21.0
Beta
0.79
Div Yield
88.00%
52w Range
$297.03 - $375.51
Short Interest
26.6M 1.59%
Days to Cover
3.4 +0%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-1.6%
vs 50d MA
-4.5%
from 52w Hi
-15.3%
Vol (20d)
19%
1w return
-0.5%
1m return
-5.7%
3m return
-14.6%
Vol ratio
1.1x
Insiders
selling 0B / 11S
Analysts
bullish 1 up / 0 down
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$3.09 +0.0% 30d 22up / 3dn
Est. Dispersion
4% 26 analysts
Analyst Target
$399 $323 - $450
Options P/C
0.77
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 7S
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Elliott, Two Sigma, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$10.9B +15% YoY
FCF
$6.4B
Gross Margin
82%
Op Margin
68%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $3.2B
Citadel $3.1B
Berkshire $2.9B
Elliott $1.4B
Two Sigma $263M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 111
net selling · $195,091,673 sold
15 insiders · 111 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
FABARA PAUL D · other
TANEJA RAJAT · other
CARNEY LLOYD A · award
LUNDGREN JOHN F · award
MORRISON DENISE M · award
LIST-STOLL TERI L. · award
READY WILLIAM J · award
MURPHY PAM · award
FERNANDEZ CARBAJAL FRANCISCO JAVIER · award
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,661,152
MCINERNEY RYAN · exercise · $1,151,463
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · exercise · $222,605
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · sell · $699,315
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,565,636
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $2,504,436
TANEJA RAJAT · sell · $7,838,626
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · other
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
FABARA PAUL D · other
TANEJA RAJAT · other
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $707,917
TANEJA RAJAT · sell · $2,080,650
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · other
ANDRESKI PETER M · other
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
FABARA PAUL D · other
SUH CHRIS · other
TANEJA RAJAT · other
CARNEY LLOYD A · sell · $302,832
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,575,385
READY WILLIAM J · award
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,588,966
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,654,707
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · sell · $697,329
ANDRESKI PETER M · other
SUH CHRIS · other
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,597,718
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,053,467
MCINERNEY RYAN · exercise · $697,477
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $4,363,524
FABARA PAUL D · exercise · $2,452,869
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $17,099,180
TANEJA RAJAT · sell · $18,443,688
FABARA PAUL D · exercise · $9,444,933
TANEJA RAJAT · exercise · $5,491,000
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,127,077
MCINERNEY RYAN · exercise · $696,668
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $6,316,131
FABARA PAUL D · exercise · $3,229,546
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $5,259,168
FABARA PAUL D · exercise · $2,684,084
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · exercise · $208,112
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · sell · $889,868
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,978,900
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,020,793
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $13,395,051
FABARA PAUL D · exercise · $7,033,812
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $12,875,320
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $3,129,060
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · sell · $11,801,529
ANDRESKI PETER M · sell · $815,314
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · exercise · $2,047,155
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · exercise · $207,869
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · sell · $874,480
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,930,800
CARNEY LLOYD A · award
LUNDGREN JOHN F · award
MORRISON DENISE M · award
LIST-STOLL TERI L. · award
LAGUARTA RAMON L · award
MURPHY PAM · award
FERNANDEZ CARBAJAL FRANCISCO JAVIER · award
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,739,264
TANEJA RAJAT · sell · $11,148,872
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,731,678
MCINERNEY RYAN · exercise · $696,668
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
FABARA PAUL D · other
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · other
TANEJA RAJAT · other
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $668,603
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
ANDRESKI PETER M · other
MCINERNEY RYAN · other
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · other
FABARA PAUL D · other
SUH CHRIS · other
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · other
TANEJA RAJAT · other
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · sell · $741,996
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,486,784
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,387,481
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,382,309
ROTTENBERG JULIE B · sell · $707,300
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,370,500
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · sell · $10,118,235
MAHON TULLIER KELLY · exercise · $2,239,280
SUH CHRIS · other
FABARA PAUL D · sell · $7,009,955
CARNEY LLOYD A · sell · $250,472
MCINERNEY RYAN · sell · $2,298,952
MCINERNEY RYAN · exercise · $657,230
CARNEY LLOYD A · sell · $201,253
earnings 4
EPS 2.76 (est 2.67959) · +0.0%
EPS 2.98 (est 2.84683) · +0.0%
EPS 2.98 (est 2.97176) · +0.0%
EPS 3.17 (est 3.14227) · +0.0%
analyst rating 2
Loop Capital init → Buy 15h ago

Evidence

7h ago UBS main V: Buy → Buy
7h ago Loop Capital init V: Buy
2d ago Visa vs. Mastercard: One Is Built for a Recession. Here's Which One to Own. yahoo-finance
3d ago Quality Companies at 52 Week Lows reddit-stocks
4d ago FTC Warns Payment Giants Against Debanking Following Trump Executive Order yahoo-finance
5d ago Visa to serve as super validator in Canton blockchain yahoo-finance
7d ago Morgan Stanley Keeps Buy Rating on Visa (V) Stock yahoo-finance
11d ago Why Middle East Crisis Has Little Impact on Visa Inc (V)’s Revenue as Stablecoin Cards Business Expands yahoo-finance
7 older signals
11d ago Visa (V) Remains a Key Player Powering Global Digital Payments Growth
14d ago Visa (V) Integrates AI for Fraud Protection and Digital Payments
17d ago Insider exercise by MCINERNEY RYAN (V): $657,230
17d ago Insider other by SUH CHRIS (V): undisclosed value
17d ago Insider exercise by MAHON TULLIER KELLY (V): $2,239,280
17d ago Insider sell by MAHON TULLIER KELLY (V): $10,118,235
17d ago Insider other by TANEJA RAJAT (V): undisclosed value

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