F Ford Motor Company

bearish · high conviction track record → $11.60 -0.08 (-0.7%)
Mkt Cap $47B 52wk $8.44 - $14.80 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-29
bearish for 1d | 15 signals · latest 6h ago | updated 5h ago
Bearish high conviction 1.9 / 10
Insider buying: $2,333,102 bought by 22 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum, filing_risk_change bearish
Est. revisions: +1.5% (2 up, 0 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Factor Breakdown

net +0.1
Est. Revisions
+0.1
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.7
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+7.0

Ford cuts EV losses, sales slump weighs

structured data adequate signal density n=69
Factors: +0.10 est. revisions -0.66 momentum +0.96 analyst divergence

Watch: Upcoming Q1 earnings for updates on EV profitability targets and sales recovery amid evolving market incentives.

Full analysis

Ford took a $19.5 billion write-down in December 2025 on its EV plans and lost $4.8 billion in its EV segment in 2025. It aims for profitability in EVs by 2029 and will invest $2 billion in battery production to hit 20 GWh annual capacity by 2027. U.S. vehicle sales dropped nearly 9% in Q1 2026 with EV sales plunging 70% post federal credit expiration, though Maverick, Ranger, and Bronco Sport sales rose 8.4%.

The large EV write-down and sharp sales decline highlight Ford's struggle to pivot profitably amid EV transition and weak vehicle demand, pressuring near-term financial results and valuation risk.

What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
New item added

Current filing specifically states "Ford s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;" this was also mentioned in prior filing but the phrasing is more explicitly emphasized in the current.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
HIGH
NEW items added

Ford added a detailed risk factor about potential risks and uncertainties surrounding strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, and business strategies. Key new language includes risks of integration difficulties, failure to realize anticipated benefits, delayed benefits, unforeseen expenses, misalignment of interests, limited control in joint ventures, potential reputational damage from third-party relationships, and risks related to new business strategies such as battery energy storage and alternative distribution models. This language was not present in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
HIGH
NEW items added

Ford added new detailed language around the risks related to restructuring actions, including strategic divestitures, ceasing operations, employee separations, plant closures, cancelling products or programs, etc. They noted risks of significant charges, disruptions, reputational harm, and potential claims or regulatory actions related to restructuring. This language is new and not reflected in the prior year's risk factors.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
Items REMOVED

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor describing cybersecurity risks, including ransomware attacks, security breaches, and disruption affecting operational information systems, vehicles, services, and supply chain. This entire cybersecurity-related risk factor is absent in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
Items REMOVED

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor concerning risks from multi-year offtake agreements for raw materials used in electric vehicle batteries, pricing risk, risk of lower EV production, and financial exposure due to contractual obligations. This language is notably absent in the current filing, though related topics are briefly touched on differently in the new filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
Material LANGUAGE CHANGES

Prior filing emphasized risks specific to multi-year raw material purchase contracts and EV battery production constraints. Current filing expands this to cover risks in strategic alliances, joint ventures, and supply relationships broadly, including sustainability efforts with suppliers and potential litigation or reputational impacts. The focus shifted from primarily raw material contract risk to broader commercial relationships.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
New item added

Current filing expands the description to include more types of strategic initiatives: "existing or pending strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, commercial relationships, or business strategies" as compared to prior filing which says "existing or pending strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, or business strategies."

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11

Get alerted when F changes direction

Compare

Ford Motor Company Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Mkt Cap
$47B
Beta
1.71
Div Yield
517.00%
52w Range
$8.44 - $14.80
Short Interest
21,386 0.0%
Days to Cover
0.0 -100%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-1.4%
vs 50d MA
-10.1%
from 52w Hi
-19.6%
Vol (20d)
24%
1w return
+0.0%
1m return
-9.4%
3m return
-10.6%
Vol ratio
0.7x
Insiders
mixed 1B / 1S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.18 +1.5% 30d 2up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
175% 14 analysts
Analyst Target
$14 $10 - $18
Options P/C
0.73
Insider Cluster
buy cluster 2B / 2S
Fund Convergence
strong Renaissance, Two Sigma, Citadel, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$45.9B -5% YoY
FCF
$1.1B
Gross Margin
-19%
Op Margin
-25%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Renaissance $324M
Two Sigma $287M
Citadel $177M
Bridgewater $23M
D.E. Shaw $11M
Recent Filings & Data
filing change 7
MEDIUM New item added: Expanded discussion on dependency on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles in the U.S.
full analysis

Current filing specifically states "Ford s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;" this was also mentioned in prior filing but the phrasing is more explicitly emphasized in the current.

HIGH NEW items added: New risk factor added on strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, and business strategies.
full analysis

Ford added a detailed risk factor about potential risks and uncertainties surrounding strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, and business strategies. Key new language includes risks of integration difficulties, failure to realize anticipated benefits, delayed benefits, unforeseen expenses, misalignment of interests, limited control in joint ventures, potential reputational damage from third-party relationships, and risks related to new business strategies such as battery energy storage and alternative distribution models. This language was not present in the prior filing.

HIGH NEW items added: New risk factor added on restructuring actions and associated risks.
full analysis

Ford added new detailed language around the risks related to restructuring actions, including strategic divestitures, ceasing operations, employee separations, plant closures, cancelling products or programs, etc. They noted risks of significant charges, disruptions, reputational harm, and potential claims or regulatory actions related to restructuring. This language is new and not reflected in the prior year's risk factors.

MEDIUM Items REMOVED: Removal of cybersecurity and ransomware risk factors affecting information systems and vehicles.
full analysis

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor describing cybersecurity risks, including ransomware attacks, security breaches, and disruption affecting operational information systems, vehicles, services, and supply chain. This entire cybersecurity-related risk factor is absent in the current filing.

MEDIUM Items REMOVED: Removal of detailed risks related to long-term raw materials offtake agreements and fluctuating costs for electric vehic...
full analysis

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor concerning risks from multi-year offtake agreements for raw materials used in electric vehicle batteries, pricing risk, risk of lower EV production, and financial exposure due to contractual obligations. This language is notably absent in the current filing, though related topics are briefly touched on differently in the new filing.

2 more
MEDIUM Shift in risk discussion from raw material contracts to broader supply chain and partnership risks.
MEDIUM Additional risks related to strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, commerc...
insider trade 72
net buying · $1,657,200 sold · $2,333,102 bought
22 insiders · 72 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
HOUSE SHERRY ANN · other
WALDO JENNIFER · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
AMEND MICHAEL R · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
FARLEY JAMES D JR · other
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · buy · $1,934,450
AMEND MICHAEL R · other
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · other
FORD HENRY III · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
THORNTON JOHN L · buy · $99,189
WEINBERG JOHN S. · other
VEIHMEYER JOHN B. · other
FRICK ANDREW · sell · $675,000
HOUSE SHERRY ANN · other
WEINBERG JOHN S. · other
VEIHMEYER JOHN B. · other
WALDO JENNIFER · other
HUNTSMAN JON M JR · other
HELMAN WILLIAM W IV · award · $215,000
THORNTON JOHN L · award · $215,000
FORD HENRY III · award · $215,000
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · award · $314,996
MAY JOHN C. II · award · $314,996
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · other
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
HOUSE SHERRY ANN · other
WALDO JENNIFER · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
KOSMAN MARK E · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
AMEND MICHAEL R · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
FARLEY JAMES D JR · other
FORD HENRY III · other
GJAJA MARIN · other
WU SHENGPO · other
FRICK ANDREW · other
GALHOTRA ASHWANI KUMAR · other
LAWLER JOHN T · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · other
STERN PETER CRAIG · other
FIELD JOHN DOUGLAS · award
CROLEY STEVEN P · other
STERN PETER CRAIG · other
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · other
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · other
THORNTON JOHN L · buy · $299,463
HUNTSMAN JON M JR · sell · $982,200
WEINBERG JOHN S. · other
VEIHMEYER JOHN B. · other
HELMAN WILLIAM W IV · award
THORNTON JOHN L · award
FORD HENRY III · award
ENGLISH ALEXANDRA FORD · award
MAY JOHN C. II · award
WALDO JENNIFER · other
HUNTSMAN JON M JR · other
FORD WILLIAM CLAY JR · other
earnings 4
EPS 0.14 (est 0.02131) · +5.6%
EPS 0.37 (est 0.33299) · +0.1%
EPS 0.45 (est 0.35883) · +0.3%
EPS 0.13 (est 0.19364) · -0.3%
Transcript analysis coming soon

Evidence

Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: New risk factor added on strategic alliances, joint ventur
Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: New risk factor added on restructuring actions and associa
Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: Removal of cybersecurity and ransomware risk factors affec
Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: Shift in risk discussion from raw material contracts to br
Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: Additional risks related to strategic alliances, joint ven
Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: Expanded discussion on dependency on sales of larger, more
Updated Sunday F 10-K filing change: Removal of detailed risks related to long-term raw materia
7 older signals
6d ago Wells Fargo main F: Underweight → Underweight
22d ago Insider other by HUNTSMAN JON M JR (F): undisclosed value
22d ago Insider other by WALDO JENNIFER (F): undisclosed value

Get alerted when F changes direction.