JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co.

bearish · high conviction 4/4 calls correct ↓ $294.16 +10.39 (+3.7%)
Mkt Cap $763B P/E 14.1 fwd 12.1 52wk $202.16 - $337.25 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-14
bearish for 1d | 15 signals · latest 5h ago | updated 20h ago
Bearish high conviction n=61
Insider selling: $389,697,406 sold by 25 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -1.5%
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Growth initiative fades as oil shock tightens credit conditions

structured data sweet_spot signal density n=61
Factors: -0.10 est. revisions -0.43 momentum -0.96 analyst

Watch: Q1 earnings April 14: loan loss provision guidance and net interest margin commentary will confirm whether the oil shock is already crimping credit fundamentals or merely priced into consensus.

Full analysis

JPMorgan launched a $80 billion small-business lending plan with 1,000 new banker hires, targeting 10 million businesses by 2035 and expanding deposit share to 15%. Yet macro pressure is overwhelming execution. Oil surged above $110 per barrel on Iran conflict, pushing recession probability to 30% per Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan's own research warns bond markets underestimate slowdown risk, signaling the bank foresees tighter credit conditions ahead. Insider selling accelerated to 12 distinct officers dumping stock worth $58.4 million; zero insider buyers in the past month. Estimate revisions stalled: zero upward revisions in 30 days, two downward, as analyst consensus fractured.

The bank is hiring and lending into a credit downturn. EPS and revenue estimates rose for April earnings, but insiders voting with their wallets and stalled revisions suggest sustainability is in doubt. Oil above $110 will compress margins and trigger higher loan loss provisions, offsetting the structural revenue boost from small-business expansion.

Position history (6d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-05 2026-03-30
All 6 daily readings
2026-03-30 bearish · high 6sig
2026-03-18 mixed · high 6sig
2026-03-15 bearish · medium 5sig
2026-03-14 bearish · high 7sig
2026-03-13 bearish · high 8sig
2026-03-05 bearish · medium 3sig

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Why We're Bearish

net -1.8
Estimate Revisions
-0.1
estimates -1.5% in 30d
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
-0.4
-5.5% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
-1.0
downgrades > upgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

Direction History

4/4 correct at 5 days
2026-03-20 bearish -1.3% ✓
2026-03-19 bullish +1.3% ✓
2026-03-16 bullish +1.3% ✓
2026-03-09 bearish -1.3% ✓
Full track record across all stocks →

Compare

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financial Services · Banks - Diversified
Mkt Cap
$763B
P/E
14.1 fwd 12.1
Beta
1.06
Div Yield
212.00%
52w Range
$202.16 - $337.25
Short Interest
24.0M 0.89%
Days to Cover
2.4 +20%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-1.9%
vs 50d MA
-5.3%
from 52w Hi
-15.2%
Vol (20d)
17%
1w return
-2.1%
1m return
-5.5%
3m return
-13.1%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 0B / 1S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$5.41 -1.5% 30d 0up / 2dn
Est. Dispersion
13% 11 analysts
Analyst Target
$340 $289 - $400
Options P/C
0.86 0C / 2P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 12S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Elliott, Soros
Financials
Revenue
$45.8B +7% YoY
FCF
$119.7B
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $3.9B
D.E. Shaw $3.3B
Two Sigma $710M
Elliott $614M
Soros
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 163
net selling · $389,697,406 sold
25 insiders · 163 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
PINTO DANIEL E · other
DIMON JAMES · sell · $21,353,561
LEOPOLD ROBIN · sell · $132,684
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · sell · $1,042,985
BARNUM JEREMY · sell · $886,157
LAKE MARIANNE · sell · $1,197,158
ERDOES MARY E. · sell · $1,756,046
PETNO DOUGLAS B · sell · $1,068,429
BEER LORI A · sell · $627,207
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
PETNO DOUGLAS B · other
BOLER-DAVIS ALICIA S · award · $280,000
WEINBERGER MARK A · award · $280,000
BAMMANN LINDA B. · award · $280,000
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $280,000
BUCK MICHELE G · award · $280,000
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $280,000
SMITH BRAD D · award · $280,000
GORSKY ALEX · award · $280,000
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $280,000
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $280,000
DIMON JAMES · other
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · sell · $1,064,758
BACON ASHLEY · sell · $2,303,393
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · sell · $2,680,888
BARNUM JEREMY · sell · $904,890
LAKE MARIANNE · sell · $1,222,353
ERDOES MARY E. · sell · $1,792,878
PETNO DOUGLAS B · sell · $1,090,728
BEER LORI A · sell · $640,295
KORABLINA ELENA A · other
BARNUM JEREMY · other
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · other
BEER LORI A · other
PETNO DOUGLAS B · other
ERDOES MARY E. · other
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · other
BACON ASHLEY · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · other
LAKE MARIANNE · other
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $56,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $36,304
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $45,000
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · sell · $301,311
ERDOES MARY E. · other
PETNO DOUGLAS B · other
KORABLINA ELENA A · other
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $56,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $35,000
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $42,500
BAMMANN LINDA B. · sell · $2,830,472
PETNO DOUGLAS B · other
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $56,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $35,000
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $45,000
BACON ASHLEY · sell · $1,390,972
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · sell · $1,608,424
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · sell · $2,505,410
LAKE MARIANNE · sell · $3,278,087
BEER LORI A · sell · $1,568,605
PETNO DOUGLAS B · sell · $2,706,562
DIMON JAMES · other
BACON ASHLEY · sell · $1,365,656
ERDOES MARY E. · sell · $3,689,941
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · sell · $3,288,444
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · sell · $1,536,931
BARNUM JEREMY · sell · $10,034,435
BAMMANN LINDA B. · sell · $2,375,000
BAMMANN LINDA B. · other
DIMON JAMES · sell · $31,495,692
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $56,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $35,000
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $45,000
BARNUM JEREMY · other
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · other
BEER LORI A · other
PETNO DOUGLAS B · other
PINTO DANIEL E · other
ERDOES MARY E. · other
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · other
BACON ASHLEY · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · other
LAKE MARIANNE · other
DIMON JAMES · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · sell · $308,652
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · sell · $1,055,314
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · sell · $6,175,485
BEER LORI A · sell · $506,698
DIMON JAMES · sell · $233,776,513
LEOPOLD ROBIN · sell · $337,610
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · sell · $1,153,078
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · sell · $10,118,869
BEER LORI A · sell · $554,054
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · sell · $919,371
LAKE MARIANNE · sell · $1,178,009
ERDOES MARY E. · sell · $1,468,971
PETNO DOUGLAS B · sell · $971,646
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
DIMON JAMES · other
BOLER-DAVIS ALICIA S · award · $265,000
COMBS TODD A. · award · $265,000
WEINBERGER MARK A · award · $265,000
BAMMANN LINDA B. · award · $265,000
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $265,000
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $265,000
SMITH BRAD D · award · $265,000
GORSKY ALEX · award · $265,000
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $265,000
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $265,000
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · sell · $838,778
BACON ASHLEY · sell · $1,808,591
LAKE MARIANNE · sell · $1,075,203
ERDOES MARY E. · sell · $1,340,216
PETNO DOUGLAS B · sell · $886,565
BARNUM JEREMY · other
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · other
BEER LORI A · other
LAKE MARIANNE · other
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · sell · $15,355,670
ERDOES MARY E. · other
BACON ASHLEY · other
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · other
KORABLINA ELENA A · other
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $56,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
GORSKY ALEX · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $35,000
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $45,000
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · other
ERDOES MARY E. · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $61,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
GORSKY ALEX · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $37,500
HOBSON MELLODY L · award · $50,000
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
BURKE STEPHEN B · award · $56,250
NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N · award · $37,500
GORSKY ALEX · award · $37,500
ROMETTY VIRGINIA M · award · $35,000
LEOPOLD ROBIN · sell · $127,761
BACON ASHLEY · other
DIMON JAMES · other
ROHRBAUGH TROY L · other
BEER LORI A · other
ERDOES MARY E. · other
PETNO DOUGLAS B · other
LAKE MARIANNE · other
FRIEDMAN STACEY R. · other
PIEPSZAK JENNIFER A · other
BARNUM JEREMY · other
LEOPOLD ROBIN · other
Rohrbaugh Troy L · exercise
earnings 4
EPS 5.07 (est 4.64495) · +0.1%
EPS 4.96 (est 4.47307) · +0.1%
EPS 5.07 (est 4.87467) · +0.0%
EPS 4.63 (est 4.81831) · -0.0%

Evidence

5h ago Jamie Dimon Calls Capitalism Critiques 'Dead Wrong,' Blames Policy Failures As Economic Growth Staggers— 'Some People Are Selfish...' benzinga
21h ago Jamie Dimon Warns Markets Won't Calm Until Iran Conflict Ends benzinga
1d ago JPMorgan Chase Aims To Transform Local Economies With Targeted Investments benzinga
1d ago JPMorgan plans to lend $80 billion to US small businesses, hire 1,000 bankers yahoo-finance
1d ago Piper Sandler reit JPM: Overweight → Overweight
1d ago European equities already pricing in more bearish outlook than 2022 energy shock, says JP Morgan yahoo-finance
2d ago NVIDIA (NVDA) Backed Start-up Reflection AI To Raise $2.5 Billion yahoo-finance
2d ago JPMorgan, Pimco say bond market is underestimating slowdown risk yahoo-finance
7 older signals
2d ago Insider exercise by Rohrbaugh Troy L (JPM): undisclosed value
2d ago Wall Street touts ‘grind lower’ trades as Iran weighs on stocks
3d ago Tightening Credit Conditions and Evolving Regulatory Tailwinds Shaping Analyst Narrative Around JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
3d ago Inside ‘Project Eagle,’ JPMorgan’s High-Wire Act to Fund EA Deal
3d ago Tim Draper On Bitcoin And The Future Of The Financial System: 'After The Automobile, People Still Ride Horses For A While'
4d ago Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Soars to 52-Week High on Leadership Transition
4d ago Meta, Amazon And Big Tech Is Driving A $140 Billion AI Debt Tsunami Spooking Wall Street—JPMorgan Just Stepped In

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