AAPL Apple Inc.

bearish · high conviction track record → $253.79 +7.16 (+2.9%)
Mkt Cap $3.7T P/E 31.5 fwd 26.7 52wk $169.21 - $288.62 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-30
bearish for 2d | 15 signals · latest 5h ago | updated 9h ago
Bearish high conviction n=61
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum, filing_risk_change bearish
Est. revisions: +0.1% (4 up, 1 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Apple beats earnings but insiders exit as tariff clouds loom

structured data sweet_spot signal density n=61
Factors: +0.01 est. revisions -0.50 momentum +0.83 analyst divergence

Watch: April earnings guidance on gross margin floor and Services monetization clarity; any margin guidance below 47.5% confirms insider selling thesis and triggers retest toward $260.

Full analysis

Apple delivered a 16% YoY revenue beat to $143.8 billion with iPhone sales up 23% to $85.3 billion and EPS rising 18% to $2.84, crushing consensus. Yet the stock sits 14% off highs amid geopolitical turmoil, and eight distinct insiders have sold $306 million with zero buyers—the strongest exit signal in months. Warren Buffett's explicit bullish pivot (he'd buy "a whole lot" if price drops) provides psychological support, but his March 31 comments came after Apple shares had already fallen 9% YTD. Filing language shifted sharply from operational detail to tariff and regulatory risk warnings; DMA compliance challenges and Google antitrust remedies now pose material threats to App Store economics.

Earnings strength masks deteriorating insider conviction and mounting regulatory/tariff headwinds that likely compress margins below the 48% bull-case threshold in coming quarters. Buffett's support is bullish for long-term holders but doesn't invalidate the insider selling thesis: officers are pricing in guidance disappointment and margin pressure the market hasn't yet repriced into the 26.7x forward multiple.

Position history (6d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-02 2026-03-24
All 6 daily readings
2026-03-24 bearish · medium 9sig
2026-03-11 bearish · high 5sig
2026-03-06 neutral · high 27sig
2026-03-05 neutral · high 28sig
2026-03-03 bullish · medium 1sig
2026-03-02 neutral · medium 1sig
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2025 filing reports that on August 5, 2024, Google was found to have violated U.S. antitrust laws. Subsequently, on September 2, 2025, the U.S. District Court ordered certain remedies, subject to appeal by DOJ and Google. The filing details possible adverse impacts on licensing arrangements with Google if remedies prohibit commercial terms, which could materially affect revenue.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
HIGH
LANGUAGE CHANGE

Prior filing: Detailed presentation of sales by geography and product line, inventory of specific products launched by quarter, segment operating performance data with dollar values, and gross margin analysis. Current filing: Generic, broad statements about forward-looking statements with no quantitative data or product specifics.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
HIGH
NEW

The current filing adds a detailed section on forward-looking statements highlighting that such statements are based on assumptions and may differ from actual results. It specifically calls out variables such as macroeconomic conditions and tariffs as examples, uses cautionary language on terms like 'anticipates' and 'expects,' and provides a disclaimer that these statements are not guarantees of future performance.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
HIGH
REMOVED

The prior filing included extensive detail on product launches, fiscal periods, macroeconomic conditions, segment operating performance, product and service sales performance, and gross margin data with specific dollar amounts and percentage changes. The current filing omits these details entirely and replaces them with a generic discussion around forward-looking statements only.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The 2025 filing adds more elaborated detail on the increasing number of claims, legal proceedings, and government investigations, especially related to standards-enabled products and technology, data and intellectual property rights enforcement increased due to AI integration, and international jurisdictions.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The 2025 filing mentions outsourcing partners in additional countries (Japan added), discusses reliance on single-source partners in the U.S., Asia, and Europe, and notes concentration of prepayments and vendor non-trade receivables among a few individual vendors primarily in Asia as of September 27, 2025.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The 2025 filing includes more specific risks related to artificial intelligence, such as increased safety risks, potential exposure of users to harmful or inaccurate content, and new legal, regulatory and ethical considerations associated with AI use in products and services.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
HIGH
NEW items added

Beginning in the second quarter of 2025, new tariffs were announced on imports to the U.S. including additional tariffs on imports from China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the European Union. In response, several countries have imposed or threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on imports from the U.S. and other retaliatory measures. Additionally, a Section 232 investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce into semiconductors and related products is mentioned. The potential impact is uncertain and could be severe if disputes escalate.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2025 filing adds that the compliance plan responding to the EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) has been challenged by the Commission and may be challenged further by private litigants. It explains that the DMA imposes significant fines and penalties for noncompliance and notes remaining privacy and security risks despite changes introduced by the Company.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-31

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Why We're Bearish

net -0.4
Estimate Revisions
+0.0
estimates +0.1% in 30d
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
-0.5
-6.6% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
+0.8
upgrades > downgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

⚠ DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum, filing_risk_change bearish

Direction History

1/1 correct at 5 days
2026-03-11 bearish -4.2%

Related Stocks

Ripple Effect

When AAPL goes bearish, MSFT follows 2x (0% same direction)

When AAPL goes mixed, MSFT follows 2x (0% same direction)

Compare

Apple Inc. Technology · Consumer Electronics
Mkt Cap
$3.7T
P/E
31.5 fwd 26.7
Beta
1.12
Div Yield
42.00%
52w Range
$169.21 - $288.62
Short Interest
124.2M 0.85%
Days to Cover
3.2 -7%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-3.1%
vs 50d MA
-5.1%
from 52w Hi
-13.7%
Vol (20d)
16%
1w return
-1.9%
1m return
-6.6%
3m return
-9.7%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 0B / 10S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$1.96 +0.1% 30d 4up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
16% 30 analysts
Analyst Target
$295 $205 - $350
Options P/C
0.63 7C / 5P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 8S
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Two Sigma, Soros, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$143.8B +16% YoY
FCF
$51.6B
Gross Margin
48%
Op Margin
35%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Berkshire $62.0B
D.E. Shaw $21.0B
Citadel $16.3B
Two Sigma $1.6B
Soros $113M
Recent Filings & Data
filing change 9
HIGH NEW items added: Update on litigation related to Google antitrust case.
full analysis

The 2025 filing reports that on August 5, 2024, Google was found to have violated U.S. antitrust laws. Subsequently, on September 2, 2025, the U.S. District Court ordered certain remedies, subject to appeal by DOJ and Google. The filing details possible adverse impacts on licensing arrangements with Google if remedies prohibit commercial terms, which could materially affect revenue.

HIGH LANGUAGE CHANGE: Shift from detailed historical operational and financial reporting to broad cautionary language
full analysis

Prior filing: Detailed presentation of sales by geography and product line, inventory of specific products launched by quarter, segment operating performance data with dollar values, and gross margin analysis. Current filing: Generic, broad statements about forward-looking statements with no quantitative data or product specifics.

HIGH NEW: Inclusion of forward-looking statements disclaimer and guidance
full analysis

The current filing adds a detailed section on forward-looking statements highlighting that such statements are based on assumptions and may differ from actual results. It specifically calls out variables such as macroeconomic conditions and tariffs as examples, uses cautionary language on terms like 'anticipates' and 'expects,' and provides a disclaimer that these statements are not guarantees of future performance.

HIGH REMOVED: Removal of detailed financial and product performance data
full analysis

The prior filing included extensive detail on product launches, fiscal periods, macroeconomic conditions, segment operating performance, product and service sales performance, and gross margin data with specific dollar amounts and percentage changes. The current filing omits these details entirely and replaces them with a generic discussion around forward-looking statements only.

MEDIUM NEW items added: Expanded discussion on legal and regulatory compliance risks and litigation.
full analysis

The 2025 filing adds more elaborated detail on the increasing number of claims, legal proceedings, and government investigations, especially related to standards-enabled products and technology, data and intellectual property rights enforcement increased due to AI integration, and international jurisdictions.

4 more
MEDIUM Expanded details on supply chain risks and new single-source disclosures.
MEDIUM Expanded discussion on risks related to AI and new technologies.
HIGH New detailed discussion of tariffs and trade disputes added.
HIGH Details added on changes to DMA compliance plan and ongoing challenges.
insider trade 1
net selling
1 insider · 1 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER · other
transcript 1
2026Q1 · 8353 words
read transcript
Suhasini Chandramouli (Director of Investor Relations): Good afternoon and welcome to the Apple Q1 fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Suhasini Chandramouli, Director of Investor Relations. Today's call is being recorded. Speaking first today is Apple CEO, Timothy D. Cook. And he'll be followed by CFO, Kevan Parekh. Please note that some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, those regarding revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income and expense, taxes, capital allocation, and future business outlook. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or trends to differ materially from our forecast, including risks related to the potential impact to the company's business and results of operations from macroeconomic conditions, tariffs, and other measures, and legal and regulatory proceedings. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Apple's most recently filed reports on Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and the Form 8-K filed with the SEC today along with the associated press release. Additional information will also be in our report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 27, 2025, to be filed tomorrow and in other reports and filings we make with the SEC. Apple assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. I'd now like to turn the call over to Tim for introductory remarks. Timothy D. Cook (CEO): Thank you, Suhasini. Good afternoon, everyone. And thanks for joining the call. I am proud to say that we just had a quarter for the record books. We are reporting our best-ever quarter with $143.8 billion in revenue, up 16% from a year ago and exceeding our expectations. The demand for iPhone was simply staggering, with revenue growing 23% year over year and all-time records across every geographic segment. Services set an all-time revenue record as well, up 14% from a year ago, and EPS reached an all-time record of $2.84, growing a robust 19% year over year. We set all-time revenue records in The Americas, Europe, Japan, and the rest of Asia Pacific and grew in the vast majority of markets we track. We continue to gain momentum in emerging markets, which includes India, where we saw strong double-digit revenue growth. Greater China also grew 38% year over year, driven by iPhone, which had record upgraders and double-digit growth on switchers. Apple's December results underscore our relentless commitment to innovation, to our customers, and to our mission to build the best products and services in the world. Now I'd like to take a closer look at results from across our lineup, beginning with iPhone. As I mentioned earlier, it was a fantastic quarter for iPhone with an all-time revenue record of $85.3 billion, up 23% year over year. This is the strongest iPhone lineup we've ever had and by far the most popular. Throughout the quarter, customer enthusiasm for iPhone was simply extraordinary. Users were incredibly excited about everything it enables them to do. iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max deliver the ultimate iPhone experience. They feature the best-ever performance and battery life on an iPhone, the most advanced camera system, and a striking design. iPhone Air, our slimmest and lightest smartphone yet, packs powerful capabilities into an ultra-slim and sleek design. And iPhone 17 is a truly fantastic upgrade and an incredible value. Turning to Mac, revenue was $8.4 billion for December. We were pleased to see the Mac installed base reach another all-time high, with nearly half of customers who purchased a Mac being new to the product. The M5-powered 14-inch MacBook Pro takes a huge leap in AI performance thanks to the next-generation GPU architecture and a faster neural engine. From the world's most popular laptop for consumers and businesses in MacBook Air to the small and spectacular Mac mini, every Mac in our lineup has something special to offer users. And with the recently released Apple Creator Studio, available across Mac, iPad, and iPhone, creators have more tools at their fingertips to make incredible music or turn their devices into a video production studio. Meanwhile, iPad saw December revenue of $8.6 billion, up 6% from a year ago, with an all-time record for upgraders. We are proud to have our strongest lineup ever, from iPad powered by A16, which is proving to be incredibly popular, to iPad Air with its amazing versatility, to the unbelievably powerful M5 iPad Pro with its remarkably thin and light design. It's no wonder that iPad continued to be the most popular tablet in the world. Across wearables, home, and accessories, revenue was $11.5 billion. With Apple Watch Ultra 3 and Apple Watch Series 11, users are tapping into a comprehensive set of health and wellness features to help them meet their health goals. In a recent survey, we see an increasing number ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]

Evidence

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