MSFT Microsoft Corporation

mixed SHIFT 3/5 calls correct ↓ $370.17 +11.21 (+3.1%)
Mkt Cap $2.7T P/E 22.3 fwd 18.9 52wk $344.79 - $555.45 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-29
15 signals · latest 5h ago | updated 5h ago
Mixed n=61
Insider selling: $5,576,301 sold by 2 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish
Est. revisions: +0.0% (22 up, 6 down in 30d)

Microsoft faces regulatory probe, geopolitical threats amid AI spending push

saturated signal density n=61
Factors: -0.61 momentum +0.81 analyst divergence

Watch: Q3 earnings guidance on Copilot seat penetration and Azure margins, along with developments in the UK regulatory probe, will be key catalysts.

Full analysis

Microsoft stock plunged 35% from its October 2025 peak, now at its lowest P/E since December 2016, driven by geopolitical fears and skepticism about AI capital expenditure returns. The UK Competition and Markets Authority launched a probe into Microsoft’s cloud licensing practices. The company simultaneously committed over $430 billion to AI and data center investments in 2026, including a $7 billion power generation deal in Texas and a $1 billion cloud and AI hub in Thailand. Microsoft also paused hiring in Azure and North American sales divisions.

This divergence highlights a market grappling with short-term geopolitical and valuation pressures against Microsoft's aggressive AI and cloud expansion, with regulatory headwinds adding uncertainty. The stock trades far below its $589.90 mean analyst target.

Position history (7d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-02 2026-03-20
All 7 daily readings
2026-03-20 bearish · high 14sig
2026-03-13 bearish · high 10sig
2026-03-12 bearish · high 10sig
2026-03-07 neutral · medium 35sig
2026-03-05 neutral · medium 41sig
2026-03-03 bearish · high 2sig
2026-03-02 bearish · medium 1sig
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2025-07-30 current filing adds a comprehensive Strategic and Competitive Risks section describing intense competition in technology markets, platform-based ecosystems, competition in PC operating systems, and challenges from vertically-integrated competitors including impacts on operating margins, which is not present in the 2024-07-30 prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2025-07-30

Get alerted when MSFT changes direction

Why We're Mixed

net 0.3
Estimate Revisions
+0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
net neutral
Price Momentum
-0.6
-8.6% 30d return
Analyst Revisions
+0.8
upgrades > downgrades
Narrative Gap
+0.0
aligned

⚠ DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish

Direction History

3/5 correct at 5 days
2026-03-20 bearish -6.6% ✓
2026-03-17 bullish -6.7% ✗
2026-03-16 bearish -4.2% ✓
2026-03-11 bearish -3.2% ✓
2026-03-08 bullish -3.3% ✗
Full track record across all stocks →

Related Stocks

AAPL bearish sector peer NVDA bearish supply chain

Ripple Effect

When MSFT goes bearish, NVDA follows 9x (56% same direction)

When MSFT goes bullish, AAPL follows 4x (0% same direction)

When MSFT goes bearish, AAPL follows 2x (100% same direction)

When MSFT goes mixed, NVDA follows 2x (0% same direction)

Compare

vs NVDA vs AMD vs AAPL vs TSLA vs META vs GOOGL vs AMZN vs TSM vs ASML
Microsoft Corporation Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Mkt Cap
$2.7T
P/E
22.3 fwd 18.9
Beta
1.11
Div Yield
102.00%
52w Range
$344.79 - $555.45
Short Interest
79.8M 1.08%
Days to Cover
2.5 +42%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-8.2%
vs 50d MA
-12.0%
from 52w Hi
-33.5%
Vol (20d)
18%
1w return
-6.3%
1m return
-8.6%
3m return
-26.2%
Vol ratio
1.2x
Insiders
selling 1B / 10S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$4.09 +0.0% 30d 22up / 6dn
Est. Dispersion
39% 29 analysts
Analyst Target
$590 $392 - $730
Options P/C
0.65 10C / 9P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong buy 2B / 8S (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Tiger Global, Coatue, Elliott
Financials
Revenue
$81.3B +17% YoY
FCF
$5.9B
Gross Margin
68%
Op Margin
47%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $23.7B
Citadel $11.2B
Tiger Global $2.6B
Coatue $2.5B
Elliott $1.6B
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 2
net selling · $5,576,301 sold
2 insiders · 2 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
HOGAN KATHLEEN T · sell · $5,045,643
Numoto Takeshi · sell · $530,658
filing change 1
HIGH NEW items added: Addition of detailed Strategic and Competitive Risks section in current filing.
full analysis

The 2025-07-30 current filing adds a comprehensive Strategic and Competitive Risks section describing intense competition in technology markets, platform-based ecosystems, competition in PC operating systems, and challenges from vertically-integrated competitors including impacts on operating margins, which is not present in the 2024-07-30 prior filing.

Evidence

5h ago New Microsoft Deal! reddit-stocks
15h ago UK Competition Watchdog Probes Microsoft Dominance In Business Software Market benzinga
17h ago IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East reddit-stocks
17h ago Should You Buy Brookfield Renewable Corporation While It's Below $40? yahoo-finance
19h ago $3 Trillion AI Data Center Build-Out: Top Stocks to Watch in 2026 - Intellectia AI google-news-ai-infra
21h ago BofA notes investor feedback on Microsoft, Coreweave on market share - Seeking Alpha google-news-nbis
21h ago Is Microsoft Stock a Value Trap? yahoo-finance
1d ago Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Climb On Cooling Iran Risks: Why MU, NBIS, TSLA, NKE, ANNA Are Keeping Traders Engaged Today - Stocktwits google-news-nbis
7 older signals
1d ago Nebius (NBIS) Stock; Drops 8% as Investors Weigh Heavy AI Infrastructure Spending - CoinCentral
1d ago Insights Into Microsoft's Performance Versus Peers In Software Sector
1d ago From Nvidia To Microsoft, Magnificent Seven Stocks Are In Ruins Except For One — Time To Buy The Dip?
1d ago 5 Stocks That Could 10X Over the Next 10 Years - Insider Monkey
1d ago AAPL shift to bearish — sector peer signal for MSFT
1d ago NVDA shift to bearish — supply chain signal for MSFT
1d ago 2 'Magnificent 7' stocks see stunning plunges

Get alerted when MSFT changes direction.