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TSLA

TSLA

bearish high
TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-21 · earnings

TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated

TSLA has missed 3 of last 4 earnings (75% miss rate) with decelerating surprise momentum, suggesting another miss is probable. Insiders are net selling $97.9M with zero buys, signaling lack of confidence. Valuation at 332x P/E is indefensible with minimal estimate upside (+2.7%). Signal consensus is 47% bearish vs 13% bullish, with recent bull-to-bear flips citing AI concerns. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%), this reflects expectations already reset downward (stock down 11% in 1m), not upside potential.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$381.26
2026-04-01
Est. move
5–9%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #101
Created
Apr 2, 04:57

Source Signals (7)

[google-news-rklb] 5 Stocks That Could 10X Over the Next 10 Years - Insider Monkey
[google-news-nbis] Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Climb On Cooling Iran Risks: Why MU, NBIS, TSLA, NKE, ANNA Are Keeping Traders Engaged Today - Stocktwits
[yahoo-finance] Elon Musk says the US could be ‘toast’ if AI doesn’t fix America’s $39T nightmare — how to protect your money
[google-news-rklb] TSLA, PLTR and RKLB Forecasts – Tech Looking to Rally - FXEmpire
[yahoo-finance] Tesla Appears to Have a New Master Plan... and SpaceX Is a Huge Part of It
[yahoo-finance] HSBC flags alarming risk for Tesla stock investors
[yahoo-finance] This 1 Tech Stock is Worth Buying Hand-Over-Fist, Even in This Environment

Refinement Chain (7 predictions)

#44 TSLA Earnings Miss on Regulatory FSD Overhang; Guidance Caut... invalidated view
#46 TSLA Earnings: FSD Safety Crisis Overrides Samsung Compute O... invalidated view
#47 TSLA Earnings: Samsung AI6 Expansion Signals Energy Margin U... invalidated view
#94 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view
#97 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view
#104 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated active view
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Price Trajectory

Mar 30
$355.28
Mar 31
$371.75
Apr 1
$381.26
Apr 2
$360.59
Apr 6
$352.82

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