TSLA

bearish medium

TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-21 · earnings

TSLA Earnings Miss on Regulatory FSD Overhang; Guidance Caution Likely

Tesla's historical miss pattern, net insider selling, and a stock down 18.6% from highs creates a low-run-up environment where even a beat would not guarantee a rally. More critically, the sharp deterioration in FSD safety metrics (5-fold drop in city-miles-to-disengagement from v14.1 to v14.2) and heightened NHTSA scrutiny represent a tangible regulatory risk that management will likely address in guidance, signaling caution on autonomous deployment timelines. Consensus EPS of $0.40 is achievable on core automotive, but without positive surprise on energy or energy-storage margins, flat-to-negative guidance on FSD monetization timelines will trigger a sell-the-news reaction, especially given the stock's proximity to technical support and the elevated insider selling activity.

Price Convergence

Baseline

$398.68

2026-03-09

Est. move

3–9%

bearish

Model

single-shot

prediction #44

Created

Mar 10, 06:45

Source Signals (2)

[benzinga] Tesla's FSD Safety Metrics 'Sharply Deteriorating,' Says Analyst

[google-news-semiconductor] Tesla may have just changed everything for Samsung - Yahoo Finance

Refinement Chain (7 predictions)

#46 ▼ TSLA Earnings: FSD Safety Crisis Overrides Samsung Compute O... invalidated view

#47 ▲ TSLA Earnings: Samsung AI6 Expansion Signals Energy Margin U... invalidated view

#94 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#97 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#101 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#104 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated active view

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Price Trajectory

Mar 6

$396.73

Mar 9

$398.68

Mar 10

$399.24

Mar 11

$407.82

Mar 12

$395.01

Mar 13

$391.20

Mar 16

$395.56

Mar 17

$399.27

Mar 18

$392.78

Mar 19

$380.30

Mar 20

$367.96

Mar 23

$380.85

Mar 24

$383.03

Mar 25

$385.95

Mar 26

$372.11

Mar 27

$361.83

Mar 30

$355.28

Mar 31

$371.75

Apr 1

$381.26

Apr 2

$360.59

Apr 6

$352.82

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