TSLA

bearish high Active

TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-21 · earnings

TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated

TSLA has missed 3 of last 4 earnings (75% miss rate) with decelerating surprise momentum, suggesting another miss is probable. Insiders are net selling $97.9M with zero buys, signaling lack of confidence. Valuation at 332x P/E is indefensible with minimal estimate upside (+2.7%). Signal consensus is 47% bearish vs 13% bullish, with recent bull-to-bear flips citing AI concerns. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%), this reflects expectations already reset downward (stock down 11% in 1m), not upside potential.

Price Convergence

Baseline

$360.59

2026-04-02

Est. move

6–12%

bearish

Model

agent-v1

prediction #104

Created

Apr 3, 06:46

Refinement Chain (7 predictions)

#44 ▼ TSLA Earnings Miss on Regulatory FSD Overhang; Guidance Caut... invalidated view

#46 ▼ TSLA Earnings: FSD Safety Crisis Overrides Samsung Compute O... invalidated view

#47 ▲ TSLA Earnings: Samsung AI6 Expansion Signals Energy Margin U... invalidated view

#94 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#97 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#101 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

Share on X

Price Trajectory

Mar 30

$355.28

Mar 31

$371.75

Apr 1

$381.26

Apr 2

$360.59

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