TSLA

bearish medium

TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-21 · earnings

TSLA Earnings: FSD Safety Crisis Overrides Samsung Compute Optimism; Regulatory Risk Dominates Guidance

The prior bearish thesis remains intact and has been reinforced by the FSD deterioration signal. While Samsung's AI6 wafer expansion (bullish on energy/storage demand) provides one bullish counterargument, it is insufficient to offset the regulatory headwind. Tesla's FSD safety metrics are objectively worse post-v14.2, NHTSA scrutiny is elevated, and consensus expects management to walk back autonomous deployment timelines in guidance. Tesla's earnings_trend is 'missing', insider_activity is 'selling', and the stock is down 18.6% from highs—a pattern that typically results in sell-the-news reactions even on beats. The macro oil thesis is forward-looking (5-10 year horizon) and unlikely to move near-term guidance. Expect flat-to-negative guide on FSD revenue, which will trigger a post-earnings decline despite any core automotive beat.

Price Convergence

Baseline

$398.68

2026-03-10

Est. move

3–10%

bearish

Model

single-shot

prediction #46

Created

Mar 10, 10:45

Source Signals (3)

[benzinga] Tesla's FSD Safety Metrics 'Sharply Deteriorating,' Says Analyst

[google-news-semiconductor] Tesla may have just changed everything for Samsung - Yahoo Finance

[benzinga] Cathie Wood Bets On Tesla, Says Palantir Is Having 1980 'PC Moment' As Trump Hints At End Of War With Iran

Refinement Chain (7 predictions)

#44 ▼ TSLA Earnings Miss on Regulatory FSD Overhang; Guidance Caut... invalidated view

#47 ▲ TSLA Earnings: Samsung AI6 Expansion Signals Energy Margin U... invalidated view

#94 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#97 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#101 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view

#104 ▼ TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated active view

Share on X

Price Trajectory

Mar 9

$398.68

Mar 10

$399.24

Mar 11

$407.82

Mar 12

$395.01

Mar 13

$391.20

Mar 16

$395.56

Mar 17

$399.27

Mar 18

$392.78

Mar 19

$380.30

Mar 20

$367.96

Mar 23

$380.85

Mar 24

$383.03

Mar 25

$385.95

Mar 26

$372.11

Mar 27

$361.83

Mar 30

$355.28

Mar 31

$371.75

Apr 1

$381.26

Apr 2

$360.59

Apr 6

$352.82

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