← All predictions
TSLA

TSLA

bearish high
TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-21 · earnings

TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated

TSLA has missed 3 of last 4 earnings (75% miss rate) with decelerating surprise momentum, suggesting another miss is probable. Insiders are net selling $97.9M with zero buys, signaling lack of confidence. Valuation at 332x P/E is indefensible with minimal estimate upside (+2.7%). Signal consensus is 47% bearish vs 13% bullish, with recent bull-to-bear flips citing AI concerns. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%), this reflects expectations already reset downward (stock down 11% in 1m), not upside potential.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$371.75
2026-03-31
Est. move
4–10%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #97
Created
Apr 1, 04:48

Source Signals (13)

[benzinga] Ross Gerber Slams Tesla's FSD For Being 'Level 2' As Gary Black Decries Marketing Strategy: 'You Still Basically Have...'
[benzinga] Gary Black Says TSLA Has Underperformed Nasdaq For 5 Years Because It Has Never Lived Up To Unsupervised FSD Hype: 'TSLA Still Has Only 9 Robotaxis'
[benzinga] Inquiry Into Tesla's Competitor Dynamics In Automobiles Industry
[benzinga] Mark Zuckerberg Praised Elon Musk's DOGE 'Progress' In 2025, Offered To Help: 'Anything Else I Can Do'
[benzinga] After 33% Plunge, First Solar Stock Faces A Death Cross — And Here Comes Tesla
[yahoo-finance] Elon Musk's Terafab: What It Is, and the 2 Stocks That Give You Exposure Right Now
[benzinga] SpaceX IPO: E*Trade Reportedly Leads Retail Push As Robinhood, SoFi Compete For Role
[reddit-investing] Long-time Tesla bull flips to sell, sees stock plunging to $150 amid AI concerns

Refinement Chain (7 predictions)

#44 TSLA Earnings Miss on Regulatory FSD Overhang; Guidance Caut... invalidated view
#46 TSLA Earnings: FSD Safety Crisis Overrides Samsung Compute O... invalidated view
#47 TSLA Earnings: Samsung AI6 Expansion Signals Energy Margin U... invalidated view
#94 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view
#101 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view
#104 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated active view
Share on X

Price Trajectory

Mar 30
$355.28
Mar 31
$371.75
Apr 1
$381.26
Apr 2
$360.59
Apr 6
$352.82

Get alerted when predictions score and stocks change direction.